Houston Chronicle

» United Nations sees world economy healing from year of 255 million lost jobs.

- By Bryce Baschuk

The global economy is poised for a solid rebound this year as vaccines and expansiona­ry policies help repair damage from a pandemic that destroyed more than a quarter of a billion jobs, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Developmen­t.

Gross domestic product worldwide will rise 4.7 percent in 2021, the Geneva-based organizati­on projected, snapping back from the sharpest annual drop in output since World War II. Last year’s contractio­n in global GDP of 3.9 percent eliminated an estimated 255 million full-time jobs, “with no region spared,” it said.

Central banks were credited for the swift responses that buffered the financial shock at the beginning of the crisis, moves that Unctad said helped ease liquidity constraint­s and calm anxious investors.

“Their willingnes­s to keep the monetary spigot open saw financial markets bounce back quickly from the lows of March-April, with many ending the year at an alltime high,” according to the report published on Thursday.

Nations that tackled the COVID-19 pandemic with rapid monetary, fiscal and vaccinatio­n programs likely will see the strongest economic growth this year, according to Unctad’s report. Healthy recoveries are expected in both developing and developed economies:

• China’s economy will expand 8.1 percent as a result of Beijing’s continued success in containing the virus and the accelerati­on of its domestic vaccinatio­n program. India and South Korea will also see healthy recoveries from contractio­ns, while Brazil’s return to growth is projected to lag other developing nations.

• U.S. GDP will likely grow by 4.5 percent, propelled by the government’s $1.9 trillion relief package and the Federal Reserve’s determinat­ion to keep interest rates at historic lows. Unctad also warned of downside risks and the emergence of a “COVID bubble” in the U.S. stock market that may create the “risk of a financial crash.”

• The euro area likely will see 4 percent GDP growth in 2021, Unctad said. But European nations may struggle early in the year depending on how fiscal responses and vaccinatio­n programs evolve. The U.K.’s rapid rollout of the vaccine will help Britain’s GDP grow by 4.4 percent this year after a nearly 10 percent plunge in 2020.

Longer term, though, the UN agency cautioned about statusquo policies like those that exacerbate inequaliti­es and foster financial instabilit­y.

“It seems reasonable to assume that, unless there is a determined shift in policy direction, the world economy will take more than a decade to catch up with its pre-pandemic trend,” the report said.

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