Next man up the middle
With Correa likely leaving as a free agent after the season, who will replace him at short?
OAKLAND, Calif. — Failing to extend Carlos Correa’s contract thrusts the Astros into a foreign place. This team does not win free-agent bidding wars. Rarely are they legitimate competitors. Correa articulated an exact reason Thursday, the deadline day for his contract extension that never came close to materializing.
“They said, ‘We don’t believe in long contracts. We don’t believe in big contracts,’ ” Correa said. “Once I hit free agency, I’m going to look for a big, long contract.”
Correa’s candor offered a dose of sobering reality. The Astros need a shortstop after the season. Many good ones are available — including Correa. Whether the Astros adjust their approach to free agency will determine if any are viable options.
“Obviously, our ultimate goal is to win a World Series this year and to put ourselves in a position to win a World Series for years to come,” general manager James Click said. “We want to keep this team competitive for as long as we possibly can, and that’s the driving force behind every single one of these conversations that we have.”
Click’s predecessor formed the franchise’s golden era through the international free agent market and amateur drafting. Jeff Luhnow paired the prospects with cutting edge player development tactics. Three seismic trades elevated the starting rotation and the club into superteam status.
Free agency aided in filling the margins, not building the team. Charlie Morton got a two-year deal in 2017. Michael Brantley received one in 2019 and another last winter. Both blossomed into club cornerstones.
Morton left for Tampa Bay after his contract expired. The Astros didn’t even extend him a qualifying offer. In January, Brantley appeared Torontobound to join George Springer for a few hours. According to Click, the scare “spurred us on,” and the Astros completed a two-year, $32 million deal with Brantley, compensating somewhat for another departed superstar.
Springer signed a sixyear deal. Gerrit Cole signed a nine-year, $324 million contract in 2019 to go to the Yankees. During Jim Crane’s 10-year ownership tenure, the Astros never have gone over five years to any free agent. Yuli Gurriel signed for five years and $47.5 million in 2016. A year later, Josh Reddick came aboard for four years and $52 million.
The deals are Houston’s high-water mark for free agents. None are near competitive enough to lure Correa — or any of the shortstops he’s slated to join this winter in free agency. Francisco Lindor’s 10-year, $341 million deal with the New York Mets set a benchmark to which all of them will look.
Barring a steep production decline or injury, Correa, Corey Seager, Javy Baez and Trevor Story will start their negotiations with Lindor’s contract length and terms in mind. Not all four will receive $300 million. Maybe none of them will. Marcus Semien, Brandon Crawford and Andrelton Simmons are available, too, but all in a class below this group.
Correa, who turns 27 in September, is younger than all of them. Seager, Story and Baez all have at least two All-Star appearances. Seager, who is five months older than Correa, won World Series MVP honors last season.
Correa is unafraid to put himself on Lindor’s pedestal. That the Astros’ two offers of six years and $120 million and five years for $125 million never came anywhere close to appeasing him demonstrates the value he’s given himself. An elite, full season in 2021 could move Correa closer to actualizing it.
As nothing more than a formality, the Astros will extend Correa a one-year qualifying offer after the season. It ensures draftpick compensation if he signs elsewhere. Houston did the same to Cole, Springer and Dallas Keuchel. After they declined, negotiations with the Astros all but ended.
The Astros could absorb Cole’s and Keuchel’s departures. Justin Verlander still remained atop the rotation after both left. Zack Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr. returned in the wake of Cole’s exit. The team stockpiled starting pitching from the international market in its minor league system, too. Having both would be an undeniable boost, but the team has sustained success without them.
Whether Houston can compensate for Springer’s loss remains a mystery. Brantley came back to solidify the outfield. A full season of Yordan Alvarez affords the power Springer took with him. In center field, though, the Astros chose homegrown minor leaguer Myles Straw over an option on the free-agent or trade market.
If they take a similar approach with Correa, two options appear most viable. Jeremy Pena is the team’s best position player prospect, but he has never played a game above Class A Advanced. He acquitted himself well in major league spring training, striking a home run off two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom. Pena is Rule 5 eligible this December, so Houston will need to add him to its 40man roster at some point this season to protect him.
Pena’s defense borders on elite. He is a natural shortstop with major league bloodlines — his father, Geronimo, played seven major league seasons in the 1990s. Questions surround his ability to hit at a major league level.
“He’s grown up quickly,”
Click said this spring. “He looks fit. He looks strong. I think as he continues to develop strength as a hitter, the upside is really there.”
Another experiment contains far more intrigue and could be a harbinger for Houston’s long-term plans. The Astros are “really looking at” outfield prospect Pedro Leon as a shortstop, Click said this spring. So much so that, when asked where Leon will play most of his minor league innings, Click claimed it’s still “an active discussion.”
“There’s a lot of moving parts on it,” Click said in March. “A lot of that will be dictated by him and how he performs.
“We have a lot of confidence that he is an aboveaverage defender in center, so we don’t want to get too cute by half, but at the same time, if he has the potential to learn shortstop or get back on the dirt and provide value there, it opens up a lot of potential avenues for us.”
When the Astros signed Leon, they marketed him as a “fast riser” and a stellar defensive center fielder with an 80-grade throwing arm. After coming to terms with the club, Leon started taking ground balls at its request. In March, Leon said he never played infield in organized baseball.
Astros coaches say Leon’s athleticism and instincts translate anywhere on the diamond. He impressed bench coach Joe Espada early in camp with his natural ability, but the finer fundamentals of the position need work. Leon went 0-for-12 in limited Grapefruit League play but starred in “B” games.
One, in particular, drew rave reviews across camp. In the major league spring training ballpark, Leon homered twice off Cristian Javier — first on a fastball and then on a slider.
“You could see (Leon) flinch in the second at-bat and yet still correct and stay on time,” Click said.
Click received footage that afternoon. It transported him back to his early days with the Tampa Bay Rays, when another rookie offered another glimpse at greatness.
“Game 1 of the 2008 ALDS, Evan Longoria hit two home runs off Javy Vazquez, one off a fastball and the second one off a curveball where you could see him stop and start his mechanics mid at-bat,” Click recalled. “It was one of the more impressive things I’ve seen on a baseball field, especially from a young guy like that.
“I hesitate to make that comparison, but Pedro’s approach at the plate, his ability to control the strike zone and adjust to pitches midair while they’re on the way to the plate is something that I think has been really exciting for us to see.”
Leon has not played organized baseball in more than a year. Asking him to impact the major league team in the near future — especially at a new position — seems a stretch. The minor league season will determine how Pena and Leon factor into the Astros’ shortstop plans. Aledmys Diaz’s return in 2022 could line him up for playing time at his natural position. Third baseman Alex Bregman played shortstop in college, too.
Verlander’s and Greinke’s salaries come off the books in 2022, giving Houston payroll flexibility it hasn’t had. Only around $90 million in guaranteed money is present. Room exists to add a big salary, perhaps one from the loaded shortstop class. History indicates it may not come.