Critics say fear, funding hurt Sun Belt census
AUSTIN — According to the new census, the booming Sun Belt isn’t booming quite like the experts thought.
Population counts released Monday came as a shock to many demographers and politicians who expected to see growth that could add numerous congressional seats to a region that’s apparently been gaining people rapidly all decade. Instead, the census found more modest growth that added only three seats total in Florida and Texas. Arizona, the second-fastest growing state in 2010, didn’t add a seat at all.
Many demographers caution it’s too early to conclude that the nation’s once-a-decade count missed any specific population groups. That won’t be known until more local data is released later this year.
But one thing is indisputable — when compared to the most recent population estimates, the three Sun Belt states underperformed during the count used for determining how many congressional seats and Electoral College votes each state gets. Texas got two extra seats instead of three; Florida added only a single new seat instead of two; and Arizona failed to gain the seat it was expecting to add.
All three states are led by Republican governors who devoted less resources than other states to encouraging participation in the 2020 census. And in all three states, Hispanics have accounted for about half of the population growth over the decade, according to American Community Survey data.
In Arizona, activists blamed Gov. Doug Ducey for supporting the Trump administration’s failed effort to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census questionnaire. Those efforts intimidated Latinos and kept them from fully participating in the census, they said.
“What we saw from the government, Ducey and the Trump administration, was intimidation from Day 1 on the census,” said Eduardo Sainz, national field director for Mi Familia Vota, a political advocacy group. “Because of this narrative of fear, and this narrative of not funding, we lost that seat.”
The Ducey administration released a statement from the state demographer saying that more data is needed to determine why the count fell short of estimates.
Arizona, Florida and Texas were laggards compared to other states in efforts to form statewide committees aimed at driving census participation. Texas never even set up a statewide committee.
Democrats slammed the GOP for those moves.
“From the very beginning, we knew our state was particularly at risk of undercounting our neighbors,” state Rep. Chris Turner, the Texas House’s Democratic Caucus chair, said in a statement. “A concerted, organized outreach effort is essential to ensuring maximum participation in the census and getting the most accurate count,” he added.
But state demographer Lloyd Potter contended there’s little evidence that massive state spending increases census accuracy. Instead, he said, Texas has a lot of the types of people who routinely get undercounted — rural citizens and African Americans and Latinos.
In Florida, a spokeswoman for Gov. Ron DeSantis didn’t respond to an email inquiry.
The actual population count from the 2020 census for Arizona was 3.3 percent short of what previous population estimates had shown. Florida and Texas were short by 0.7 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.
On the flipside, the population counts in two states that had been expected to lose seats, Alabama and Rhode Island, exceeded their estimates by 2 percent or more. If New York had counted 89 more residents the state would have kept its seat. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Tuesday said the state was exploring its legal options.
The narrow margins have aroused suspicions that something “doesn’t seem quite right,” said Arturo Vargas, CEO of NALEO Educational Fund, a Hispanic advocacy group.
“I smell smoke,” Vargas said. “We will have to wait a few months to see what kind of fire there is.”