Too soon to expect Texans, Jags on rise
With the draft complete and teams getting ready for rookie minicamps and the remainder of the offseason program, it’s going to be interesting to watch how the AFC South develops. Tennessee and Indianapolis finished 11-5 last season and tied for first place. The Texans were 4-12. Jacksonville lost its last 15 games and earned the first pick in the draft.
What the division teams do in the offseason will help determine what happens in the regular season, when two questions will be answered: Will the Titans or Colts win the AFC South, and will the Jaguars escape last place and overtake the Texans?
Let’s examine what the AFC South teams did in the draft. The Jaguars had nine picks, the Titans eight, the Colts seven and the Texans five.
It’s going to be difficult for the Texans’ draft choices to get a lot of playing time because general manager Nick Caserio acquired 37 veterans, including 36 on oneand two-year contracts. Those who make the 53man roster will be hungry to prove themselves and
try to get a contract extension in 2022 when the salary cap goes up, so rookies might have to watch and learn.
Caserio’s most intriguing draft choice was quarterback Davis Mills in the third round. Coach David Culley will have quarterback coach/passing game coordinator Pep Hamilton work with Mills to try to fastpace his development so they can see what they’ve got, probably during the second half of the season.
The Texans have to see if they believe Mills can become a franchise quarterback. If they don’t believe it, they’ll have to use their first pick next year on another quarterback.
Speaking of quarterbacks, no first-round draft choice is under more pressure than Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, the highest-rated prospect at his position since Indianapolis selected Andrew Luck in 2012.
Lawrence has been a can’tmiss prospect since his freshman season at Clemson. With Lawrence and Urban Meyer, one of the most successful coaches in college history, as the new faces of the organization, Jacksonville fans have a reason to be fired up about the season.
But if there’s a franchise that can ruin a high draft choice, it’s Jacksonville. Seven times in their last 10 drafts, the Jaguars have owned a top-five selection. The only one who’ll play for them this season is Lawrence.
The last time the Jaguars used a top-five draft choice on a quarterback was 2014, when Blake Bortles was the third overall pick. Dating to the Bortles draft through 2018, there were eight quarterbacks chosen among the top three, and only Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield still plays for the team that drafted him.
Using his first two picks on Lawrence and his Clemson teammate, running back Travis Etienne, Meyer hopes to elevate an offense that finished 28th, including tied for 28th in rushing and 21st in passing. Offensive tackle Walker Little (of Episcopal and Stanford) is another draft pick who could start as a rookie and help spark an offensive renaissance.
The Jaguars finished 31st in defense. Cornerback Tyson Campbell and safety Andre Cisco, second- and third-round picks, should join two fourthround selections — tackle Jay Tufele and end Jordan Smith — to help improve a defense that was awful against run and pass.
After winning the AFC South, the Titans didn’t need as much help in the draft as the Jaguars did. They entered the draft with issues at cornerback, wide receiver, offensive tackle and tight end.
Tennessee can’t afford to blow another first-round pick like last year. Offensive tackle Isaiah Wilson turned into one of the biggest busts in NFL history, and he’s already out of the league.
General manager Jon Robinson and coach Mike Vrabel took a chance on their firstround pick, cornerback Caleb Farley. He opted out of last season before undergoing back surgery in late March. If he had been healthy, there’s a good chance Farley would have been the first cornerback drafted ahead of Jaycee Horn (South Carolina) and Patrick Surtain II (Denver).
Whenever Farley is able to play — possibly by the start of the regular season — he should solve a need in Tennessee’s secondary. The second-round pick, Dillon Radnuz, should settle the issue at right tackle, where Wilson failed so miserably in 2020.
The Titans had two picks in the third round and used them on linebacker Monty Rice and cornerback Elijah Molden, making it three defensive players among the top-four picks. Defensive end Rashad Weaver is a talented fourth-round pick with an off-the-field problem that came out before the draft.
In 2020, the Titans were 28th in defense, including 29th against the pass. They also had only 19 sacks, third fewest in the league. Signing outside linebacker Bud Dupree in free agency should help relieve some of the pass rush issues.
Indianapolis general manager Chris Ballard and coach Frank Reich went into the draft with a big hole at left tackle because of Anthony Castonzo’s retirement. Sam Tevi, a three-year starter for the Chargers, has the inside track to replace Castonzo.
Rather than target the offensive line, Ballard helped the defensive line with his first two picks — ends Kwity Paye in the first round and Dayo Odeyingbo in the second. Paye is an outside rusher, and Odeyingbo could be used on the inside.
Three of the Colts’ first four picks were defensive players. When the draft was over, they’d added four offensive prospects, including Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger in the sixth round. He’ll be developed behind Carson Wentz — the Colts’ fourth starter in four years — and Jacob Eason.
No matter how their draft choices develop as rookies, the Titans and Colts are still the favorites to win the AFC South.
Going into the season, Indianapolis will have the best defense, but Tennessee should be favored because the Titans have an offense that was fourth in scoring, headlined by quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry, the most dangerous one-two punch in the league.
As for the Texans, they’ll try to avoid the AFC South basement. If they do, they’ll lose a chance to get the first overall pick in the 2022 draft that would be a huge boost to their rebuilding process.