Tropical storm forms in the Gulf
Heavy rain expected to fall here as system moves along coast
Tropical Storm Nicholas formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and is expected to drag northward along the Texas coast in the coming days, bringing heavy rainfall and the risk of flooding to Houston.
The National Weather Service predicts the storm will make landfall sometime Monday as a strong tropical storm, and forecasters warn Nicholas could produce “life-threatening” storm surge from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass, at the southern end of Galveston Island.
Forecasts evolved during the day Sunday to predict heavier rainfall totals and greater flood risks in coastal communities, including predictions of 15 to 20 inches of rain through Wednesday in some parts of the Houston area.
“The slow movement of this system will lead to a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain,” the NWS reported Sunday afternoon. “The potential for dangerous flash floods will be high.”
The worst of Nicholas’ rain is expected Tuesday or Wednesday. Parts of the Texas coast, however, were visited by unrelated showers and thunderstorms Sunday night.
Meanwhile, city of Houston and Harris County workers spent Sunday placing barricades near problem high-wa
spots on local streets, ensuring rescue equipment was in the right neighborhoods and topping off high-water vehicles with fuel.
“Pay attention to those barricades, any levels of high water, definitely turn around and don’t drown,” said Tom Munoz, who was hired as Houston’s emergency management coordinator last month. “Remember that 2 feet of water can sweep away a vehicle.”
Mayor Sylvester Turner also urged motorists to heed any barricades they see on the street — and to watch forecasts closely.
“We know we’re still in hurricane season — but it doesn’t have to be a hurricane. What we have seen is these systems can accelerate very quickly,” Turner told reporters Sunday at an event unrelated to the storm. “What I will say to people now is to be weather aware, weather alert, especially, let’s say, the next 72 hours between now and Wednesday.”
Houston officials also lowered the level of Lake Houston on Sunday from 42.3 feet to a planned 41.5 feet to better accommodate the expected rainfall and lessen flood risks in surrounding neighborhoods.
The city and county emergency operations centers planned to activate early Monday morning, officials said, to be joined within hours by the state’s comparable operations center, Gov. Greg Abbott’s office announced.
Abbott said he had ordered state resources placed on standby along the Gulf Coast, including rescue boats, high-water vehicles and other equipment.
“We will continue to closely monitor this storm and take all necessary preter cautions to keep Texans safe,” Abbott said in a statement. “I encourage Texans to follow the guidance and warnings of their local officials and be mindful of potential heavy rain and flooding.”
Harris County Public Health announced that their COVID-19 testing and vaccination sites would be closed Monday in advance of the storm. The Brazosport and Sweeny school districts, as well as Brazosport College, also announced Monday closures, along with a number of school districts and public agencies further south along the coast.
The storm is the latest headed for Texas, which has endured several major storms in recent years, most notably the catastrophic Hurricane Harvey, which dumped more than 4 feet of rain on Houston in just a few days in 2017, and Tropical Storm Imelda two years ago. Other major flooding events include the Memorial Day flood of 2015 and the Tax Day flood a year later.
Local forecasters Matt Lanza and Eric Berger with Space City Weather said that when Nicholas hits the Houston area, the areas to the south and east look likely to be hit the hardest, but that the storm formed a clear center so late that precise predictions of where the worst rains would fall would have to wait for Monday.
Still, Berger on Sunday night upgraded Nicholas’ expected effects to “Stage 3” of the duo’s five-stage flood scale, anticipating hundreds of flooded homes comparable with Imelda’s impact in Houston.
“We are expecting several rounds of locally heavy rain the next few days. Flash flooding will become an increasing concern as we head toward midweek,” Lanza said. “So it’ll be important for folks to stay plugged into what’s happening as forecasters get more clarity on where and when the heaviest rain will fall. We should see things begin to improve after Wednesday.”
As of 7 p.m., Nicholas was 260 miles southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande and had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. It was crawling northward, expected to strengthen as it moves over the western Gulf.