Colts 31, Texans 0: How it happened
Welcome to Film Room, where we’ll break down significant portions from the Texans’ last game. Have a seat. Set the phone aside. Let’s dive in.
The Texans’ quarterback position is again an open discussion. David Culley’s tone changed Sunday from the head coach’s usual endorsement of Tyrod Taylor as the team’s starting quarterback when healthy to an unsteady “we’ll evaluate everything.”
Yes, Taylor injured the wrist on his non-throwing hand during the third quarter. He was briefly inspected in the team’s medical tent on the sideline. Culley said “he probably could have come back in the game if we needed him to,” but he still had questions whether Taylor could handle the football with a hyperextended wrist.
Although Taylor underwent an MRI on Monday to gauge the severity of his injury, Culley said when they name a starter for Sunday’s game against the Seahawks (4-8) — perhaps by Wednesday, when Culley hopes to award firstteam reps to one player — it will still be a “football decision.”
The offense, which was stalling for the fourth straight week, had reached an all-time low with Taylor behind center. Taylor completed just 5-of-13 passes for 45 yards against the Colts and threw an interception on the first play of the game. Taylor’s pick was most costly in the eyes of the turnoverfocused Culley, and the 11-year veteran whom Culley once said gives the Texans their best chance to win remained on the bench and was replaced by rookie Davis Mills.
The offense was equally inefficient with Mills in the game. Mills completed 6 of 14 passes for 49 yards, and, despite crossing midfield for the first time in the game, none of his four offensive drives resulted in points.
So, as the quarterback battle ensues, a major point needs to be made clear: neither quarterback has substantially improved Houston’s historically inefficient offense. In Mills Part I, the Texans were outscored 206-68 in 6½ games, and the third-rounder from Stanford’s 29.2 QBR ranked 31st among league quarterbacks when Taylor returned from his hamstring injury.
To expect any considerable overall change in efficiency by inserting Mills back into this limited offense would be unrealistic.
But, with Taylor’s one-year contract expiring after the season, and with first-year general manager Nick Caserio evaluating whether he needs to spend another high draft pick on a quarterback or acquire another veteran in free agency, it makes sense for the Texans to see what else they have in Mills and let the rookie develop more in the final five games.
With that in mind, it’s worth diving into Mills’ return against the Colts and identifying what differences there were between this appearance and his last, how the offense might look with him as the starter, plus outlining what the rookie is looking to improve on if he gets the nod in future games.
Culley complimented Mills on making quick decisions and using his legs against the Colts while facing a heavy pass rush. Opponents often disrupted Mills by cranking up the pressure during his six starts, sacking a rookie who wasn’t as mobile as Taylor 17 times and forcing him to throw seven interceptions.
Culley said the Colts started to blitz more when Mills entered the game, and, indeed, Indianapolis rushed five or more defenders on eight of his 14 pass attempts. Mills got rid of the ball by an average of 2.49 seconds on those heavy rushes, which, according to Pro Football Focus, is quicker than his overall 2.56 release average this season.
The Texans offense also incorporates more play-action rollouts with Mills in the game, which inherently are more effective when there’s an effective run game to keep the defense honest. On his first drive, a 7-yard run by Rex Burkhead set up a second-and-3 situation which enabled Houston to pull the trigger on a play-action bootleg that combated a Colts blitz (sequence shown below).
The Texans deployed a two-tight end, 12 personnel package that tilted the strength toward Pharaoh Brown, who lined up next to left tackle Tytus Howard. The Colts blitzed linebacker Darius Leonard (circled ) off that edge as a fifth rusher, and Brown was able to sneak past Leonard (arrow) for a chainmoving, four-yard reception.
Howard noticed the blitz, shifted outward (arrow) and flattened Leonard. Antony Auclair, who began as a fullback in the backfield, sealed the right edge (circle) and left Mills with a clean right sideline to deliver an ontarget pass to Brown.
The Colts blitzed again on the next play, and the Texans were prepared to leverage against the rush once again. Safety Khari Willis blitzed off the right edge, straight toward Mills, leaving the left sideline completely vulnerable for a well-timed reverse to Brandin Cooks that went for 16 yards to the Colts’ 44.
At this point, down 21-0 with 1:18 left in the third quarter, the Texans crossed midfield for the first time in the game. The drive, which, at 37 yards, was already Houston’s longest of the day, had the makings required to establish rhythm on a Mills-led offense: an effective run game, which, by creating favorable field position, opened the playbook to leverage the defense, which allowed opportunities for creative, explosive plays like the ones that the Texans also ran against the Browns and Patriots.
But the flicker of a revival was shortlived. The Texans attempted another creative design with a play-action throwback on their next play, which didn’t appear to catch the Colts off-guard (sequence shown below). It’s the sort of run-oriented play that, with better timing or better execution, may have worked out more favorably.
There appeared to be three options on the play: 1) a screen to running back Jaylen Samuels, 2) a deep midfield pass to Brandin Cooks, 3) a sideline throwback to Chris Conley. The Texans ended up blocking seven against four Colts rushers, and, since the Colts had seven defenders to cover three receivers, there was virtually nowhere for Mills to throw the ball.
From the beginning, it did not appear the defense was sold on the run. Mills faked a handoff, but Samuels (circled) never made a move like he was going to run. He immediately ran toward the sideline on his route. The Colts linebackers and cornerback Kenny Moore (circle) remained at their normal depth and covered up Samuels.
Mills briefly looked downfield, saw Cooks wasn’t open, then, by the time he reached his third read with Conley (arrow), Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (circle) had broken through the line. Mills forced the ball toward Conley into double coverage and was nearly intercepted.
This was the one throw Culley said was a bad decision by Mills on Sunday. But, even had Mills thrown the ball away, the play still resulted in a secondand-10 situation that the Texans did not overcome. The Texans ran the ball twice, including on third and 8, which was an apparent decision to gain yards in four-down territory, and Mills sailed a pass over Nico Collins on a fourth-and-6 attempt that turned the ball over on downs.
Mills had a clean pocket on his decisive throw to Collins, which took just 1.82 seconds from snap to release. In subsequent dropbacks, Mills was similarly decisive. But he was also similarly off the mark, and twice his incompletions were due to miscommunication with a wide receiver.
On the next drive, the Colts blitzed Willis again on third and 10 at the Texans’ 25 (sequence shown below). It’s the sort of blitz that in previous circumstances resulted in pressure, a quarterback hit or a sack against Mills. Since Culley complimented Mills’ ability to get rid of the ball quicker, it’s reasonable to think Mills was wary of Willis and intended to throw the ball before trouble arrived.
But Samuels (circled) picked up Willis in the protection scheme. By this point, Mills, who still had a clean pocket, had already released the ball. A pass that took 1.87 seconds to release sailed out of bounds with no receiver nearby. Collins had streaked downfield (arrow), and Mills, who was flagged for intentional grounding, had expected Collins to stop his route shorter.
Mills had another communication breakdown on a second-and-10 situation on the following drive, when, in press coverage, Mills expected Conley to break to the sideline instead of streak downfield, and his pass again sailed out of bounds.
When the Texans took over on their next possession, the Colts had established their 31-0 lead, and, with 1:56 left in the game, the Colts deployed soft zone coverage to combat Houston’s pass-heavy, two-minute drill offense.
The Colts still rushed four plus a fifth blitzer with the game out of reach, and Mills showcased some mobility that eventually forced Indianapolis to adapt. Mills scrambled twice for 8 yards and 3 yards, and the Colts rushed just four on the next two plays in response.
This advantage, too, was short-lived. Colts linebacker Zaire Franklin monitored Mills as a spy on fourth and 3 (sequence shown below), and kept the rookie quarterback contained while their defense covered up the downfield options long enough for defensive end Kemoko Turay to get through for a game-ending sack.
The final drive, at the very least, showcased mobility that may be useful for Mills in future games. His speed may not be the type that, like Taylor, can score three rushing touchdowns in the red zone, but might help alleviate some of the blitzes he saw during his first six starts.
Any adaptation is on the table for the Texans in their final five games, and Culley said it’s no longer difficult to make a change at quarterback from a veteran who he previously thought would give them the best chance to win.
“Not when you look at the way we’ve been playing, the way our offense has been playing,” Culley said. “Obviously, the job of our quarterback is to score points and get in the end zone. We haven’t done that very well and we’re going to see what we need to do to get that corrected. That’s why we’re doing an evaluation right now.”