Green, Porter out as play resumes
To win or not to win? That is the question the 13-45 Rockets face, with a play-in spot out of reach and lottery odds theirs to lose.
The Rockets’ main priority for the remainder of the season, as it has been throughout the last few seasons, is improvement. Whether that occurs within the context of wins or losses remains to be seen, but will be made more difficult as they resume play absent two key pieces.
Jalen Green, the No. 2 pick of the 2021 draft and a cornerstone of the rebuild, and Kevin Porter Jr., the starting point guard, are both injured. Neither will play Friday in San Francisco when the Rockets face a Warriors team with a much clearer agenda.
The NBA’s defending champions went into the All-Star break with a 29-29 record, and are now pushing to rise out of play-in tournament territory and secure a guaranteed playoff berth. The window for a title repeat is shrinking for Golden State’s veteran squad, which possesses experience and roster continuity that are the envy of many other teams, certainly Houston’s.
The Warriors have swept the last two season series against the Rockets. The Warriors’ current eight-game winning streak is tied for their longest in the all-time series, but they will be on the second half of a backto-back when they face the Rockets on Friday after playing the Lakers in Los Angeles the previous night.
Here are five things to watch:
Guards down
Porter led the Rockets in scoring and assists in each of the previous two games against the Warriors this season. Green averaged 14.5 points in those games.
The injuries to Green and Porter not only leave the Rockets without their two leading scorers, but
with dangerously thin guard depth. Daishen Nix was the substitute starter for a stretch in January after Porter got hurt but logged DNPs in four of the last five games. Rookie TyTy Washington could be in line for his first NBA start, though most of his playing time has occurred in garbage time of blowout losses with a notable exception being the Rockets’ last-second loss in Miami.
Beyond Nix and Washington, the Rockets have no traditional point guard options. Eric Gordon is gone, traded to the Clippers. Second-year guard Josh Christopher is more comfortable playing off the ball. Forward Jae’Sean Tate has been shoehorned into a starting guard role that messes with the team’s spacing.
Houston is 2-2 this season in games played without Porter and Green.
One less chef
Warriors star guard Stephen Curry remains out after he sustained a lower leg injury on Feb. 4 that caused him to miss
the five games leading into the All-Star break, as well as the All-Star game itself. Curry began some light individual court work this week but will be sidelined at least another week.
His absence might be a small comfort to the Rockets, who have been tortured by Curry for years dating back to the 2015 Western Conference Finals. In the Warriors’ two wins against the Rockets this season, Curry averaged 31.5 points and 12.5 assists per game while making 15 of his 31 3-pointers.
Golden State won the game against Dallas in which Curry was injured, and went 2-3 in subsequent games played without him before the break.
Triple threats
The Warriors lead the NBA in both 3-point makes (16.6) and attempts (43) per game, and rank third in 3-point percentage (38.6). With numbers like that, you’d better believe they won’t hesitate to let it fly. Three-pointers account for 47.7 percent of
Golden State’s total field goal attempts, third-most in the NBA.
Curry was responsible for the bulk of them, averaging an NBA-best 4.9 3-pointers per game. Even without him, the Warriors still have Klay Thompson, who shoots 39.8 percent from deep and ranks second in the league behind Curry at 4.2 makes per game.
They also have two other players who shoot close to 40 percent behind the arc with at least five attempts per game, Andrew Wiggins (39.6 percent, 2.4 of 6.1 attempts) and Donte DiVincenzo (41.6 percent, 2.1 of 5.0 attempts). Guard Jordan Poole is third on the team with 2.7 makes on 8.0 attempts, but shoots just 33.5 percent.
In the season series against the Rockets, Golden State has 49 3-pointers on 49.5 percent shooting while Houston has 18 on 24.7 percent shooting.
Defensive dips
The Rockets’ defensive rating of 121.4 since Jan. 1 is the worst in the NBA in that span. Meanwhile, the Warriors ranked 16th with a defensive rating of 115.6, not awful but a level of defense that has sometimes sabotaged their attempt to get and stay above the .500 mark.
Golden State’s biggest defensive problem, though, seems to be one of Houston’s offensive strengths: points from penetration.
The Rockets average 30.8 points per game on drives, which account for 62.5 percent of their total points and 9.3 percent of personal fouls drawn this season. Green in particular has been most effective operating in pick-androlls or perimeter isolation, but K.J. Martin and Jabari Smith Jr. have shown promise in those areas. The Warriors don’t really have a primary point-of-attack defender who can guard that consistently, and they are tied with the Timberwolves for most free-throw attempts allowed per game (26).
Clutch mistakes
Similar to Houston, Golden State struggles to execute late in games.
Perhaps the Rockets have a slight leg up because of their aptly named mascot. Or perhaps the Warriors, who lead the league in pace, simply get too carried away at times. Whatever the reason, Golden State ranks 24th in clutch net rating (-7.3), one spot behind Houston (-6.4).
Another common overlap in the Venn diagram between the Rockets and Warriors in the clutch is ball security, or lack thereof. The Rockets trail only the Spurs for the secondhighest clutch turnover rate (19.6 percent), while the Warriors have the third-highest (15.9 percent). In general, the Rockets and Warriors lead the NBA in turnovers per game and lose the ball more often in the second half; Houston commits most of its turnovers in the fourth quarter while Golden State does in the third quarter.