Progress slow on climate targets
WASHINGTON — New analysis by the Energy Information Administration predicts far slower declines in carbon dioxide emissions and electric vehicle adoption than those targeted by President Joe Biden.
The independent agency forecast Thursday that by 2030 U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector, which represent more than 70 percent of total emissions, will decline to between 25 percent and 38 percent of 2005 levels — far from the 50 percent drop in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions targeted by Biden.
As for Biden’s target of net zero emissions by 2050, the administration predicted carbon dioxide emissions from energy will at best decline 45 percent by that point.
EIA Administrator Joseph DeCarolis attributed the limited progress in emissions reduction to presumed increases in transportation and industrial activity, along with a lower electric vehicle adoption rate than the administration is pushing for.
“We’re modeling current laws and regulations, legally binding policies,” he said. “In the long run, there’s continued growth and sometimes that catches up with (emissions declines).”
In the energy administration’s modelling, fossil fuels continue to represent a large share of U.S. energy consumption, even as wind and solar energy grow at a fast clip. Domestic petroleum demand, for instance, is projected to stay relatively flat through 2050, while U.S. production actually increases based on demand from foreign markets.
In addition, the administration predicts electric vehicles will only represent between 10 percent and 25 percent of new car and light-duty truck sales by 2030,
compared to Biden’s target of 50 percent.
DeCarolis said adoption rates could bump up with policy changes. He pointed to California’s plans to ban internal combustion engines by 2035, something that wasn’t included in the modeling because the state is awaiting approval by the Environmental Protection Agency.
At present though, he said analysts were seeing limited interest among the majority of car buyers for electric vehicles.
“We’re not just tracking cost, but consumer preferences too,” he said. “We see EVs capturing the luxury market and flattening out (in the mass market). But if theres a major breakthrough that could change.”