Poll: Whitmire, Jackson Lee lead mayoral race with 4 months to go
The Houston mayoral election appeared to narrow to a two-candidate contest between state Sen. John Whitmire and U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, with Whitmire poised for a double-digit lead in a likely runoff, a University of Houston poll shows.
The University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs on Tuesday unveiled one of the earliest polls of this year’s crowded mayoral race. Thirtyfour percent of likely voters expressed support for Whitmire, 32 percent for Jackson Lee, and no more than 3 percent for any of the other 12 candidates.
With Election Day still four months away and a 3.5-percent margin of error, Whitmire’s slim 2-point lead holds little weight. Yet, in a potential runoff between the two top candidates, the gap expands significantly, with 51 percent of voters leaning toward the state senator and only 33 percent backing the congresswoman.
While Jackson Lee boasts the highest name recognition — with only 6 percent of voters reporting unfamiliarity with her, compared to 23 percent for Whitmire and over half for the others — this recognition appears to be a double-edged sword, said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University and co-author of the poll.
Outside Jackson Lee’s solid support, a large swath of voters showed strong negative sentiments. Forty-four percent of the 800 surveyed Houstonians said they would never vote for Jackson Lee, vastly exceeding the range of 13-17 percent for all other contenders. Only 13 percent of likely voters said they definitely would not back Whitmire.
“She has about a third of the electorate that is very loyal and very supportive of her, but she also has a very low ceiling in that almost half of likely voters say they would never vote for her,” Jones said. “And right now, some of the people who have a positive opinion of her still favor Whitmire.”
For a chance at victory, Jackson Lee would have to not only rally persuadable voters but also considerably grow the number of Houstonians with negative opinions of Whitmire, Jones said.
“The poll tells us where we are now, and where we are now is these things would have to occur for someone not named John Whitmire to win this election,” he said.
Distinct voter bases
Whitmire’s edge over Jackson Lee in a runoff came largely from his anticipated sweep of Republican votes, with a whopping 88 percent of GOP respondents favoring him over Jackson Lee. These numbers highlight Whitmire’s bipartisan appeal, Jones said, a narrative he’s been championing since the start of his campaign.
Meanwhile, Jackson Lee is the preferred choice for Democrats in a potential runoff, albeit with a narrower margin of 55 to 28 percent.
The two candidates’ voter bases are markedly divided along demographic lines as well.
Jackson Lee commands a significant edge over Whitmire among Black likely voters in a runoff scenario, claiming 64 percent to Whitmire’s 19 percent. Whitmire, on the other hand, surpasses Jackson Lee among white and Latino likely voters, with 63 percent and 54 percent of those groups, respectively, saying they intend to vote for the state senator.
Differences also emerge along gender lines. Whitmire nudges ahead among women, with a runoff vote intention of 43 percent compared to Jackson Lee’s 38. This lead significantly amplifies among men, where he garners 58 percent support, far ahead of Jackson Lee’s 27.
Whitmire said he is pleased by the widespread voter approval received early in the race.
“Houstonians want a proven leader who understands the issues they care about, and I am pleased they trust me to make the tough and smart decisions to see that city government meets the expectations citizens have a right to expect in our great city,” he said. “I am ready to get to work and together we will make Houston better.”
Jackson Lee’s campaign manager, James Sonneman, said the poll suggests a close race.
“Sheila Jackson Lee is ready to make a clear case to the voters that shows she has delivered for Houston for decades and will continue to deliver as Mayor,” Sonneman said.
Too early to predict runoff
Election Day is Nov. 7, with runoffs usually taking place about a month afterward. Runoffs occur when no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, which often is the case in crowded city elections.
Houston elections have a history of being unpredictable, according to Nancy Sims, a political consultant and a political science lecturer at the University of Houston. With November still a few months away, the numbers in the poll should be taken with a pinch of salt, she said.
“It’s extremely early to be predicting a runoff,” Sims said. “It clearly gives Whitmire an advantage. What it doesn’t take into account, of course, are the issues and events that will occur as the campaigns heat up.”
Undecided voters a target
More voters have made up their minds earlier this election cycle compared to previous ones, with only 22 percent of likely voters still undecided as of July. As a reference, a poll from the last open mayoral race in 2015 showed twice as many voters — 42 percent — were uncertain even just a month ahead of the election.
However, former Metro Chair Gilbert Garcia, who currently leads the remaining candidates with 3 percent, said the number of undecided voters still represent a significant opportunity.
“This poll is consistent with our polling that the race is wide open. It is also consistent that the two career politicians who have been on the ballot 15-20 times each have the highest name ID,” Garcia said. “From here, the race will depend on who has a clear vision for Houston and the resources to deliver that vision. We’ll be ready.”
Three others in the race — Attorney Lee Kaplan, Houston Councilmember Robert Gallegos and former Councilmember M.J. Khan — each received support from 2 percent of survey respondents. Activist Derrick Broze and Houston-area police officer Robin Williams each garnered 1 percent.
Mayor Sylvester Turner is unable to run again because of term limits. He will vacate the office in January.