What is behind the state’s rare February heat wave?

One Texas town hit 100 degrees on Monday, marking the first time any Texas city’s temperature has made it to triple digits in 2024. Dozens of other towns and cities across the Lone Star State and beyond also broke daily record highs as temperatures soared.

Fort Cavazos marks first 100-degree day

Fort Cavazos, previously known as Fort Hood, in Killeen reached a high of 100 degrees Monday afternoon as stout southerly winds ushered in anomalously warm weather from Texas to the U.S.-Canada border. Fort Cavazos temperatures broke the previous daily heat record of 89 degrees set in 1954 and marked the earliest date for triple-digit heat at the U.S. Army post.

Many other Texas cities, like those in the DallasFort Worth area, reported highs in the lower to mid-90s. While these Texas towns are known for bringing the heat, the intensity of this winter warmth is nearly two months ahead of schedule for some. What caused this record-shattering heat?

There isn’t just one answer to this question but likely several factors that are contributing to record warmth. One of the biggest drivers behind this late February heat is the location of the jet stream. The jet stream is a fast-moving river of air and serves to separate warm, tropical air from often cold, dry air.

North of the jet stream, temperatures in a place like Bismarck, N.D., were in the single-digits early Tuesday. South of the jet stream, temperatures in Lubbock were only in the lower 70s early Tuesday. Another crucial aspect to this wave of warmth and the overall mild winter across much of the nation has been El Niño. During El Niño winters, the polar jet stream is often locked to the north of the U.S., resulting in warmer winters than average for locations like the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes.

How rare is this early season heat?

While Texas is no stranger to triple-digit heat, it’s fairly rare for triple-digit heat to occur during February. Dallas-Fort Worth and Brownsville have seen 100-degree temperatures in early March, but this is far from a yearly occurrence. The Dallas-Fort Worth area’s earliest 100-degree day occurred on March 9, 1911, and Brownsville’s earliest occurred on March 4, 1983.

San Antonio observed triple-digit highs in February 1996, more than four months ahead of the average first date of 100-degree temperatures, which comes in late June.

Another day of recordbreaking warmth is expected Tuesday in the same areas that broke records Monday.

Fastest-warming seasons

Climate Central, a nonprofit organization that analyzes and reports on climate science, found that in 240 locations across the U.S., nearly 3 in 4 sites are seeing warming occur the fastest during the meteorological winter months of December, January and February.

In Texas, the season that warms the fastest depends on where in the state you live. In the Dallas-Fort Worth area and Wichita Falls, meteorological winter is the fastest-warming season. In Houston and several Panhandle locations, meteorological summer (June, July and August) is the fastest-warming season.

CORRECTION

A story on page A1 on Feb. 14 incorrectly described what the trustees at Round Rock ISD and Georgetown ISD approved. They voted to accept chaplains as volunteers.