Rising to the occasion?
Cougars have shot to win it all but know slightest hiccup can derail title run
Can the University of Houston win the men’s college basketball national championship?
It’s a question that has been asked for weeks — even months as the Cougars have been among the prohibitive favorites for most of the season — and will be debated in the coming days as brackets are filled for the 68-team NCAA Tournament.
UH (30-4) is the No. 1 seed in the South Region and will open against No. 16 seed Longwood on Friday in Memphis, Tenn.
Although a 28-point loss to Iowa State in Saturday’s Big 12 tournament final cost a shot at the tournament’s top overall seed, the Cougars’ path to the Final Four includes a possible stop in Dallas for the second weekend of the tournament.
“They have a legitimate chance to win the championship,” longtime CBS announcer Ian Eagle said.
Can the Cougars win the national title?
It’s something never accomplished before in program history; the closest the Cougars have come was Phi Slama Jama’s consecutive championship game appearances in 1983 and 1984. (Get ready to see Jimmy V. sprint across the court in a continuous television loop during the next three weeks).
To win college basketball’s ultimate prize, so many things must be perfectly aligned. While the College Football Playoff goes back and forth over how many teams will have access, the NCAA Tournament is the only major college event that puts one-bid leagues and midmajors on equal footing with blue bloods and behemoths.
Even the slightest hiccup or off night can have season-ending consequences.
A tough regional draw.
A bad early-round matchup. Health of a key player. “We don’t have the same team today that we had a month ago,” UH coach Kelvin Sampson said. “So, we’ll get some rest and see if we can’t get some bodies healed up.”
How a school is playing as it enters the tournament also carries some weight. Saturday’s 6941 loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 championship game was just the Cougars’ second loss in the last 18 games. UH blitzed through the Big 12 in its first season, winning the regular-season title in what is regarded as the toughest league in the country.
“Forty minutes is not going to define three months,” Sampson said after losing to Iowa State — a trendy pick to reach the Final Four — for the second time this season.
Can the Cougars win the national title?
UH has a 41.6% chance to reach the Final Four and 14.2% shot to cut down the nets in Glendale, Ariz., the second-best odds behind defending national champion UConn, according to TeamRankings.com. In a season absent of one dominant team, the Cougars join UConn and Purdue as the clear-cut title favorites.
“We’re about to get everybody’s best shot,” UH senior forward J’Wan Roberts said.
UH has built a postseason pedigree under Sampson, who has led the Cougars to four straight trips to the Sweet 16 — which includes a Final Four trip in 2021 — and six NCAA Tournament appearances in 10 years. This is the second straight season UH has been a No. 1 regional seed.
“It’s win or go home,” said guard L.J. Cryer, who won a national title as a freshman at Baylor in 2021. “Everybody wants to be a No. 1 seed because, typically, that gives you the best advantage in the tournament.
“But you’ve got to realize (the other schools) are winners, too. You’re not making the tournament without being winners. We have to come in with the right mentality. Yeah, we worked hard for the seed we got, but we have to come play. We’ve seen in the past a 16-seed beat a 1-seed. You can’t really look at the number. At the end of day, everyone is equal. We all deserve to be in the tournament, and everybody is fighting for a national championship.”
A potential roadblock for the Cougars is injuries that severely depleted their bench down the stretch. Guard Terrance Arceneaux was the first casualty with a torn Achilles tendon in mid-December. Guard/forward Ramon Walker Jr. (knee) and forward Joseph Tugler (foot) were lost to season-ending injuries in the past month.
The latest concern: Roberts, a veteran forward and the team’s leading rebounder, suffered a bruised right shin in the Big 12 tournament and was held out in the second half of Saturday’s championship game. It’s been a painful season for Roberts as he’s dealt with a bothersome knee and received seven stitches in his right hand during a game in early March.
“We’ve battled all year long,” Sampson said. “I think there’s so much good fortune that goes with teams that can stay healthy, and we’re struggling with that right now, so we’re going to have to figure some things out.”
Question marks regarding health are nothing new for UH, which enters a third straight NCAA Tournament with injury concerns. Two years ago, Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark suffered season-ending injuries in late December, but the Cougars still managed to reach the Elite Eight. Last year, Sasser, an All-American guard, injured his groin in the conference tournament, point guard Jamal Shead dealt with a hyperextended knee and UH had no answer for hot-shooting Miami in a Sweet 16 loss.
Can the Cougars win the national title this time around?
It depends on getting hot at the right time. Not falling victim to the next March Madness hero to follow in the footsteps of Bo Kimble (Loyola Marymount), Bryce Drew (Valparaiso) and Steph Curry (Davidson). It means avoiding that ‘One Shining Moment’ of North Carolina State’s Lorenzo Charles, Duke’s Christian Laettner, Indiana’s Keith Smart or Villanova’s Kris Jenkins, and, perhaps, producing one of your own along the way.
It involves some luck. When the Cougars reached the Final Four in 2021, they became the first team to not face a singledigit seed after the bracket was turned topsy-turvy. And last year marked the first time that a single No. 1 seed failed to reach a regional final.
Beware of Cinderella. Who will be the next to join George Mason, Butler, VCU, Florida Gulf Coast, Loyola-Chicago and Florida Atlantic. The University of Maryland-Baltimore and Fairleigh Dickinson remain the only 16-seeds to beat a No. 1 (Virginia in 2018 and Purdue in 2023, respectively).
“Twenty years ago, I would have never thought that a 6 (seed) team could beat a 1 (seed),” Sampson said. “Now it’s more likely than not to happen again. So, you just never know. You’ve got to hope for some good fortune and prepare your kids the best you can and hope you play good that night.”
What the Cougars have in their favor? A seasoned 35-year coach in Sampson. A defense that annually ranks among the nation’s best. A backcourt of Cryer and Shead, the Big 12’s player of the year and likely first-team All-American.
“What strikes me is the command of this program, the standard in which now is expected of Houston basketball,” said Eagle, who takes over the primary broadcast duties this season previously held by Jim Nantz. “No matter what league they are in there’s an excellence that comes with being a Cougar.”
And potential obstacles? Along with injuries, the Cougars are susceptible to poor shooting games. Do they have enough firepower?
“I think their intensity will travel,” Eagle added. “The question marks will be on the offensive end and whether in a pinch are they going to be able to get baskets? They’re going to lock down.
“What they do, they do extremely well and at a high level.”
Can the Cougars bring home that elusive national title? We’re about to find out. “It’s win or go home,” Roberts said. “We know what type of team we are. We know how good we can be.”