Level of play has priority
Maintaining strong stretch will allow play-in positioning to ‘take care of itself ’
The Rockets’ play-in chances have changed. The mindset has not.
When the Rockets returned from the All-Star break, having stumbled in too many games against too many teams far from the playoff chase to consider their own chances at reaching the postseason, they vowed to concern themselves only with how they were playing, rather than where it could take them.
They still intend to think that way. Play like a playoff — or at least play-in — team, and perhaps they will be one.
“We want it, for sure,” Rockets guard Fred VanVleet said. “I think the common theme is to just play good, and everything else will take care of itself. We are playing good basketball, playing together. I think we will have a shot down the stretch. It’s right there for us.
“Coming down the stretch, we know what’s at stake. To have a real shot, we have to play our best these last couple weeks. I think the group has found that swag and that energy as we make a real push here.”
As March began, the Rockets were 25-34, in 12th place in the Western Conference, seven games behind the Lakers for the final play-in spot.
The Rockets have gone 7-1 this month, moving to within 3½ games of the Warriors and Lakers to reach the play-in games.
Houston has been careful, however, about putting too much emphasis on the standings. The Rockets turned things around by focusing on their play, rather than what it could bring them. That is still the plan.
“We haven’t discussed it much,” coach Ime Udoka said. “I think everybody knows what the standings are and where we stand. We just want to play good basketball, consistent basketball, and the results will take care of themselves.
“(We) put ourselves in a hole earlier with some of the ups and downs and the games that we let get away, or we could be in a different place right now. Now you’re going to have to do it yourself and get some help on the back end. But we have to do our part first, and we’ll see where everything lands.”
The Rockets pushed themselves to the brink with losses to struggling teams, most conspicuously at Brooklyn, Toronto and Memphis. Since the break, they have taken care of business against teams on the bottom of the standings — San Antonio, Portland and Washington, with the first two knocked off on the road — and registered road wins at Phoenix and Sacramento.
That set up Saturday’s test against the Cavaliers, the Rockets’ first game against a team with a winning record since Alperen Şengün and Cam Whitmore were injured. Houston led the Cavs by 27 on the way to a 117-103 win, maintaining momentum heading into a one-game trip to Washington and a relatively soft part of the schedule.
The Rockets’ next four games are against teams with losing records, though the Bulls, whom the Rockets face Thursday, topped Houston at Chicago this season and have gone 7-3 in their past 10 games to move into Eastern Conference play-in position.
Houston’s schedule will get considerably more difficult in the final 10 games, but overall, the Rockets, Warriors and Lakers have comparable schedules.
The Rockets (32-35) have eight games remaining against teams with winning records, split evenly between home and road.
The Lakers (36-32) have eight games left against teams with winning records, including five at home.
The Warriors (35-31) have nine games remaining against teams with winning records, five on the road. One of their games against a team with a losing record brings them to Toyota Center on April 4 to play the Rockets.
That will come in a key stretch for the Rockets if they can stay in the race through the rest of March. From March 31 through April 7, they will host the Mavericks, go to Minnesota, host Golden State and Miami, and visit Dallas.
They would likely need to win some of those games not just to catch the Warriors or Lakers but potentially claim the tiebreaker against Los Angeles.
The Warriors already have the head-to-head tiebreaker against Rockets, having won two of the season’s three meetings. The Rockets and Lakers split their two games, making the tiebreaker conference record, where the Rockets have the edge. The Rockets are 22-19 in Western Conference games; the Lakers 24-23.
Considering the previous three seasons, the Rockets’ presence in the play-in chase, with the Lakers and Warriors no less, represents considerable improvement. But the Rockets expected that when they brought in a pack of veterans to bolster a young core, and they demonstrated the improvement long before there would be a reason to consider schedules in the final four weeks.
No matter where the Rockets finish, there is a benefit to having their first-, second-, and thirdyear players participate in high-stakes late-season games.
“I’ve been on teams myself where you knew you were done by December, January,” Udoka said. “That’s not the best feeling. To have something to play for, but also change the mindset and mentality around here, was one of the main objectives this year. I think we did that from the start. To have a chance to play for something still at this point in the season but also finish on a strong note, guys are continuing to grow. It’s year one with me, and I think we’ve seen the progress.
“Things are starting to round out a little bit here and there. We’d like to have that momentum going into next year regardless of where we land.”
With just 15 games left for the Rockets to make up the necessary ground on the Lakers or Warriors, the odds remain against landing in a play-in spot. The Rockets spent their margin for error before the All-Star break. But if the goal is simply to play at the level of a playoff team, they are not dependent on an examination of the standings.
“We started well and had a lull in the middle with the ups and downs,” Udoka said. “We’d like to get back to playing like we did earlier, which was more consistent basketball. We’ve seen that lately. We’d love to finish on the right note … and see where that falls.”
They would like it to fall in the play-in games, where they probably would need to win twice on the road to reach the playoffs. If playing with high stakes in March can be valuable, win-or-gohome games in April could be an even more beneficial in the Rockets’ latest phase of rebuilding.
“We are trying to make this push,” guard Jalen Green said. “Obviously, you see we have a lot more wins than the last two years, so it is good to see the progress and what we can do. We’re trying to get better each day and trying to make a run.”