Home finale a chance to play spoiler
The Rockets arrive at their final game in Toyota Center this season with 26 home wins, more than all but three Western Conference teams. But it was not enough because they fell short of the playin when they lost their past three home games.
They get a last chance to leave their home court with a win when they face the Orlando Magic, their first opponent of the season, as they begin a fourgame week to end the season with a winning record still within reach.
The Magic have more at stake, bringing a 46-32 record to town, placing them as the third seed in the Eastern Conference, just one game behind the foundering Bucks and tied with the Knicks. They also have just a game-and-a-half lead on the Cavaliers to keep from falling to fifth and losing homecourt advantage in the playoffs’ first round.
The Rockets would have liked to have had such concerns. Instead, their final home game will be a chance to show how far they have come since they were blown out when they last faced the Magic, a 116-86 loss in the first game of the season.
That game was tight until the Rockets’ offense stalled in the final minutes of the third quarter and the rest of the way. They have improved greatly on that end in the second half of the season, ranking seventh in scoring since the All-Star break. On Tuesday, they get a last chance at home to prove it.
Another test
The Rockets will have a sixth consecutive game against a team either with one of the top defenses in the league or a defense that had been on a lateseason roll.
The Magic have been both. They have been the second-ranked defense in the NBA since the AllStar break, moving them up to third overall this season. No team shut down the Rockets as completely this season as the Magic did in the season opener, holding the Rockets to 86 points and to a rate of just 90.5 points per 100 possessions, 7.5 points per 100 possessions fewer than the games against the Timberwolves, the league’s top-ranked defense.
The Magic are 20-2 when allowing fewer than 100 points. The Rockets, however, have been much more effective and faster paced offensively. They have had the fifth-ranked offense since the start of March.
The Rockets’ offense had slumped through five games but put up 136 points against the Mavericks on Sunday, 129 through four quarters. Turning that into a lateseason trend will be more difficult against the Magic.
No. 1 vs. No. 3
The Magic made Paolo Banchero the first pick of the 2023 draft after it had been widely expected that Jabari Smith Jr. would go first.
Smith fell to the Rockets with the third pick. Both have played important roles in their teams’ rise, but Smith has not been able to produce against the Magic as he has otherwise, especially lately.
Smith moved to center since the injury to Alperen Şengün, averaging 15.8 points on 48.3% shooting and 39.2% 3point shooting in the 13 games he has played since. His rebounding has declined in that stretch, to just 6.7 per game, with Smith often remaining on the perimeter to draw opposing big men out and limiting his offensive rebounding.
In three games against the Magic, Smith has averaged just 6.7 points and 3.7 rebounds in an average of 25.3 minutes per game.
Banchero has averaged 21.7 points and eight rebounds against the Rockets.
He is on pace to be the youngest player ever to lead his team in scoring, rebounding and assists, and to join Michael Jordan, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Maurice Stokes and Kevin Garnett as the only players younger than 23 to do it.
Jalen vs. Jalen
Jalen Green has not only become the focal point in the Rockets’ offense, but he is also the focus of opposing defenses. The Mavericks became the most recent team to trap the ball out of his hands. After he made 6 of 7 shots in the first quarter, scoring 15 points, Dallas double-teamed him the rest of the way as Green missed his remaining eight shots, scoring six points.
The Magic might be more hesitant to doubleteam Green with Jalen Suggs, the player taken three spots later in the 2021 draft, an outstanding defensive guard.
Green made just 2 of 10 shots in the season opener in Orlando, but he averaged 27.5 points on 57.1% shooting against the Magic last season.
Ball control battle
The Rockets have done a good job taking care of the ball and limiting points off turnovers all season, a priority they had going into the season to help forge their turnaround. That could be tested by the Magic.
The Rockets allow just 14.9 points off turnovers, the fourth fewest in the NBA. The Magic, however, average 18.6, the second most. That was an issue in the first game of the season when the Rockets allowed 19 points off turnovers, including seven in the fourth quarter when the Magic pulled away.
The Rockets have been scoring more regularly off the turnovers they force in recent weeks. Their average of 18.5 points off turnovers since the All-Star break is the third most in the league.
Training room
The Magic could look very different depending on a pair of important forwards. Franz Wagner left Sunday’s game with a sprained right ankle. Jonathan Isaac had been dealing with back spasms.
Both injuries seemed more troublesome, but both were listed as questionable. They are key players in the Orlando frontcourt for different reasons.
Wagner is the Magic’s second-leading scorer, averaging 19.6 points per game and making 48.2% of his shots. Isaac is an outstanding defensive player off the bench.
The Rockets expect to have the lineup they have used since Şengün’s injury, after Amen Thompson, who moved into the starting lineup when Ş engün was hurt, missed Friday’s game with a sprained ankle and was ejected from Sunday’s game in the first quarter after a flagrant foul. In 19 starts, Thompson has averaged 13.1 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.4 steals in 29.3 minutes per game.