Analysts say Trump’s warning to Pakistan could backfire
ISLAMABAD (AP) — President Donald Trump’s warning to Pakistan to put an “immediate” end to harboring militants operating in Afghanistan didn’t spell out the consequences of defiance or suggest a new strategy to get it to yield to longstanding U.S. demands, analysts said Tuesday.
They also said that isolating Pakistan could unsettle the U.S. relationship with Islamabad and push it closer to Russia, China and Iran, further complicating efforts to stabilize the region.
“The idea of U.S. leverage in Pakistan is deeply exaggerated,” Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the U.S.-based Wilson Center’s Asia Program, said in an email to The Associated Press a day after Trump’s speech. “No matter the punishment, policy, or inducement, there’s little reason to believe that Pakistan will change its ways.
“Pakistan has an unshakeable strategic interest in maintaining ties to militant groups like the Taliban because they help keep Pakistan’s Indian enemy at bay in Afghanistan,” he added.
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Tuesday the U.S. could consider sanctions on Pakistan or cut off its status as a major non-NATO ally if Islamabad does not crack down on the Taliban and other extremist groups. He didn’t say what sanctions might be considered.
In outlining his plan for the 16-year war in Afghanistan, Trump on Monday night warned of the threat to U.S. security from militant groups operating there and in neighboring Pakistan.
“Today, 20 U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organizations are active in Afghanistan and Pakistan — the highest concentration in any region anywhere in the world,” he said. “For its part, Pakistan often gives safe haven to agents of chaos, violence and terror.”
The threat is compounded by the fact that both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers, he said, and their hostile relationship could spiral out of control.
“And that could happen,” Trump said.
Some in Pakistan were baffled by his later statement demanding that India get more involved in Afghanistan, a scenario dreaded by Islamabad and the reason cited most often for Pakistan’s support of the Taliban as a bulwark against India’s influence in Afghanistan.
“Upgrading the Indian role in Afghanistan basically means perpetuating the hostilities,” said Imtiaz Gul, executive director of the Islamabad-based Center for Research and Security Studies.
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement late Tuesday saying it is committed to fighting terrorism, and it called allegations it provided safe havens to militants “a false narrative.”
It added that a military solution is not possible, saying “only an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned politically negotiated solution can lead to a sustainable peace in Afghanistan.”
Pakistani Interior Minister Ahsan Iqbal told reporters that his country “has rendered unmatched sacrifices in the war on terror. Our war against terrorism is not because of the United States; we will continue this war.”
U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan David Hale met Tuesday with Foreign Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif, according to a government statement, which also announced a meeting with Tillerson “in the next few days” in Washington. The U.S. policy toward Afghanistan and South Asia will feature prominently in their meeting, it said.