Democrats have a high hill to climb in 2020
It should come as no surprise to anyone when I say that Democrats are in trouble mounting a challenge to President Donald Trump and the Republicans in 2020.
The odds are all on the side of the Republicans for a number of reasons.
First, the current effort to cut taxes plays well into a re-election strategy. Having majorities in both houses of Congress, the Republicans have the votes to get tax reform through.
History tells us that tax cuts will stimulate the economy for the short term, 12 to 18 months.
If the tax cuts pass in Congress and go into effect in the summer or fall 2018, the positive effects would most likely run into the election cycle of 2020.
We tend to vote for the incumbent when our economy is running well.
A second reason the odds favor the Republicans is that they have a formidable list of possible presidential candidates even if President Trump decides not to run again.
Just a superficial list of wellknown Republicans would include Vice President Mike Pence and Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan.
It would also include several current cabinet members and, perhaps, one or more of the four generals clustered around the oval office as advisors to President Trump.
Why wouldn’t President Trump run again?
The reasons are legion. His experience in the White House has not gone as he anticipated.
His campaign promises of repealing Obamacare, building a wall, etc., are proving to be extremely difficult.
The popularity polls show him continually below 40 percent and not likely to win over those who currently view him negatively.
His history is that he doesn’t hang on long to a losing proposition. Note the several bankruptcies in his past. When the work isn’t going well he cuts his losses and moves on. That is good business and he is, at his core, a business man.
Age is another factor that might persuade President Trump not to run.
He will be 74 when the next election rolls around.
If he did run for re-election and won, he would be 78 before he left the White House.
Most weekend golfers have stretched their hobby into five days a week by age 78.
Those in our population who are still working in their mid-70s generally need additional money to live on.
That isn’t President Trump’s problem.
Historically, we elect presidents a decade younger than our current president.
The average age of a U.S. president at the time he took office is 55. Most were in their 50s (24).
The youngest was Theodore Roosevelt (age 42).
Democrats have several nationally known leaders, but none who are in what one might call a “reasonable” age range.
By Election Day in 2020, Elizabeth Warren will be 74, Bernie Sanders, 79, Nancy Pelosi, 80, and Joe Biden, 78. Ronald Reagan was the oldest man we ever elected to the presidency for the first time and he was, by comparison, a youthful 70 when he took office in 1981.
There is another 18 months before presidential campaigns begin to heat up and someone else may emerge on the national scene who captures the minds and hearts of the electorate.
Being President of the United States is a major “stress” job. President Trump said, “Who knew health care would be so complicated?”
Every problem that gets to the White House is complicated.
Everything on the president’s desk is a gray area problem with multiple constituencies disagreeing on the solution.
President George W. Bush once identified himself as, “the decider.” Well, he was.
And, so is President Trump. Being the decider is not fun.
In fact, virtually every decision a president makes generates enemies who have long memories.
Stay tuned.
The next 36 months are going to be very interesting.