Not much will change after primaries
Preliminary numbers from Tuesday’s statewide primary election show voter turnout of a dismal 16%.
The state now mails a ballot to every active registered voter, 21.94 million of them at last count. Mail ballots don’t need postage. Voters can vote early in person, and in the counties that have implemented the Voters Choice Act, including massive Los Angeles, voters may cast or drop off their ballot at vote centers anywhere in the county for up to 11 days before the election. California drivers are now automatically registered to vote at the Department of Motor Vehicles unless they opt out.
With all of this, turnout was far below previous gubernatorial primary elections. In June 2018, turnout was 37.54%. It was 25.17% in 2014 and 33.31% in 2010.
Another thing that doesn’t exactly add up is the sweeping success of incumbents even as Californians tell pollsters the state is on the wrong track. According to PPIC’s latest poll, conducted after ballots were mailed out last month, 52% of likely voters think California is headed in the “wrong direction.”
Be that as it may, Gov.
Gavin Newsom easily cruised toward reelection with 1.9 million votes, 56.2% of the votes counted by Thursday morning. That was well above statewide Democratic party registration, which is 46.77%. Second place went to Republican Brian Dahle with just under 600,000 votes, 17%, well below California’s Republican registration of 23.93%. Although nearly 5 million Californians (22.7%) are registered as No Party Preference, NPP candidate Michael Shellenberger finished a very distant third with 128,253 votes, or 3.7%, as of Thursday morning, despite a strong following on social media and two bestselling books on the failures of California climate and homelessness policy.
It would seem that almost all of the November statewide races can be called now for the Democrats. U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla, with 53.4% of the vote in his race for a second term, will face Republican Mark Meuser, who polled at 14.4%. Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis received 52% of the vote and will face a Republican, Angela E. Underwood Jacobs, who polled at 20%. Secretary of State Shirley Weber had 58.7% to Republican Rob Bernosky’s 19.5%. In the race for state controller, Republican Lanhee Chen led the field, but he received barely more than a third of the vote at 37.1% and will face Democrat Malia Cohen, who led a field of other Democrats with 21.2% as of Wednesday morning.
In the state treasurer’s race, incumbent Democrat Fiona Ma (57.5%) will face Republican Jack Guerrero (21.4%) if current numbers hold, or Republican Andrew Do (18%) if they don’t. Incumbent Democrat Attorney General Rob Bonta (54.4%) will face either Republican Nathan Hochman (18.5%) or Republican Eric Early (16.9%). No Party Preference candidate Anne Marie Schubert, the formerly Republican district attorney of Sacramento County, drew only 7.5% of the vote.
Democratic incumbents in two other statewide races won large pluralities. Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond had 45.7% of the vote in the nonpartisan race, with Ainye E. Long, George Yang and Lance Christensen all slightly under 12% of the vote in the fight for second place. Scandal-plagued Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara drew the support of 37% of voters, with Republicans Robert Howell and Greg Conlon and Democrat Marc Levine battling for second place with between 16% and 18%.
Very little if anything will change in California government following the November election. If voters are unhappy about the direction of the state, they have an odd way of showing it.