Journal-Advocate (Sterling)

OFFICIAL DETAILS POPULATION CHANGES

CDE reports shows Colorado public school enrollment continues to decline

- By Callie Jones cjones @prairiemou­ntainmedia.com

Colorado has been experienci­ng a gradual decline in births and a slowing net migration, and those trends are beginning to affect schools, the state’s demographe­r told the State Board of Education in a presentati­on recently about what to expect in the coming years and decades.

From 2010 to 2020, Colorado was the sixth-fastest growing state in the country, adding roughly 75,000 people every year. Those numbers have since slowed to an average of 30,000 a year after 2020, said Elizabeth Gardner, demographe­r with the Colorado Department of Local Affairs, according to a press release from the Colorado Department of Education. Fewer babies are being born, the death rate is up and not as many people are moving to the state, she said.

This will continue to influence Colorado’s school-aged population, she said.

“The peak school age was in 2019 to 2020,” Gardner said. “We will see a decline until about 2028 or 2029. We won’t get back to 2020 levels until 2035.”

Gardner said she has been talking with school districts around the state to help them plan and prepare for these population forecasts. Gardner’s presentati­on highlighte­d other demographi­c trends including that Colorado’s overall population is getting older — with a larger number of people over 60 and growing every year. Job growth is forecast to slow, which impacts education because it means fewer people are moving to the state for work, she said.

Nearly two-thirds of the counties in Colorado have seen declines in the school-age population over last decade, the CDE press release notes. In Logan County specially, the pop

ulation under the age of 18 had a decline between 100 and 499 people from 2010 to 2020. However for the eastern plains, the projected population change from 2020-2050 is a gain of 11,000.

Gardner noted that Weld County on the Front Rage, however, is seeing growth. But even in Weld County, the school-age population has slowed.

Additional­ly, Colorado’s population is becoming more diverse, she said, particular­ly in residents under the age of 25.

On Wednesday, the CDE reported that for the second straight year, student enrollment in Colorado’s public schools declined with the 2023-2024 school year PK-12 student enrollment reaching the state’s lowest mark in a decade according to the annual count of public school students in October.

The state’s October 2023 count of 881,464 students enrolled in public schools was 1,800 fewer than in October 2022, a 0.20% decrease, states a CDE press release. The last time Colorado’s public school enrollment was this low was in 2013 when 876,999 students were counted.

Colorado’s school enrollment has experience­d a downward trend in three of the past four years. The only difference was in 2021, when enrollment increased following a historic drop in October 2020 during the height of the pandemic.

In Logan County, RE-1 Valley School District’s student count for 202324 is 1,887, a decrease of 85 students from the prior year and down from 2,104 in 2020-2021 and 2,258 in 2019-2020. Data from 2009-2010 to 2023-2024 shows the district’s highest enrollment was in 20092010 when it had 2,502 students.

Frenchman RE-3 School District in Fleming has 221 students this year, the same number they had in 2022-2023 and up from 217 in 2020-2021; Buffalo RE-4J School District has 323 students this year, an increase of nine students over last year and up from 305 in 2020-2021; and Plateau School District in Peetz has 201 students this year, an increase of 23 from last year and up from 160 in 2020-2021.

According to CDE’S press release, for the 2023-24 school year, the largest combined enrollment decreases occurred in pre-kindergart­en through first grade, with 3,691 fewer students than in 2022. A similarsiz­ed decrease occurred in those grade levels in 2022.

The largest overall grade decrease in 2023 occurred in the first grade, which declined by 3.91 percent or 2,478 students when compared to first graders in 2022. Kindergart­en saw 1,068 fewer students than were in kindergart­en in 2022 for a 1.79 percent decrease.

Colorado Education Commission­er Susana Córdova said that Colorado’s enrollment mirrors national trends: “Public school systems across the country are experienci­ng declines in student enrollment, particular­ly in the early grades. We know that pre-kindergart­en and kindergart­en are where students build critical foundation­s for life-long academic success including language developmen­t, early literacy, and social skills.

“Even as our state is experienci­ng demographi­c shifts that will impact student enrollment for years to come, we are encouraged by the state’s commitment to early learning through the Colorado Universal Preschool Program,” she said. Cordova noted that nearly 50,000 3- and 4-year-olds are enrolled in the Colorado Universal Preschool program that launched in the fall of 2023 through the Colorado Department of Early Childhood.

Based on the state’s October count, student demographi­cs show 7,526 fewer white students in 2023, a decline of 1.66 percent. The number of students identifyin­g as American Indians or Alaska Natives also declined by 127 students (2.32 percent). The state’s percentage of multiracia­l students increased by 3.39 percent and students identifyin­g as Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander increased by 9.18 percent. For the complete 2023-24 school year student count informatio­n go to, https:// www.cde.state.co.us/cdereval/pupilcurre­nt.

A total of 113 of the state’s 178 school districts and two Boards of Cooperativ­e Educationa­l Services and the Colorado School for the Deaf and Blind reported drops in enrollment while 65 districts, four BOCES and Colorado detention centers reported increased or flat enrollment.

Although student enrollment counts were finalized and reported in October, districts nationwide continue to receive newcomer students. In its press release, CDE said it is committed to working with districts and school teams to ensure they are supported in serving these multilingu­al learners.

 ?? CALLIE JONES — JOURNAL-ADVOCATE ?? Sterling Middle School students wait outside for the doors to open for the first day of classes Wednesday, Aug. 16, 2023.
CALLIE JONES — JOURNAL-ADVOCATE Sterling Middle School students wait outside for the doors to open for the first day of classes Wednesday, Aug. 16, 2023.

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