Inflation disdained across the political spectrum

Inflation – you know it, and you definitely don’t like it. According to Americans polled in a Pew Research Center report last year, it is the nation’s top problem.

Frustration with inflation is shared across the political aisle, with 77% of Republicans and 52% of Democrats calling it a “very big problem,” according to the report.

In basic economic terms, inflation occurs when prices rise and money loses value due to an increase in the money supply, allowing more consumer purchases. In the United States, inflation is usually measured using the Consumer Price Index, which tracks variations in the prices typical consumers pay for things like food, housing and cars.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, supply chain disruptions and shocks to food and energy prices “contributed substantially” to the sharp rise in inflation during and following the COVID-19 pandemic. It hit a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022.

Since then, inflation has slowed significantly. Going by the CPI, overall prices rose 3.2% from a year earlier in February, slightly up from 3.1% in January. However, prices remain a concern for Americans as prices for mortgages, groceries, car insurance and transportation have become volatile and more expensive.

Individual experiences differ because some goods rise in price while others fall. For example, though the cost of buying a car skyrocketed during pandemic lockdown, consumers who already had cars or didn’t drive weren’t impacted.

However, the cost of food and groceries is felt by everyone.

Though presidents have limited control over inflation, it can still affect their election results. Incumbents are usually favored when the economy is strong and challengers when there is perceived weakness.

The average year-over-year inflation rate was 1.4% under President Barack Obama and 1.9% under President Donald Trump. Under President Joe Biden, it is 5.7%.

Research has shown that the economy generally does better under Democrats than Republicans but that inflation is constantly in flux, and its causes are often difficult to track.

Inflation expectations and the severity of inflation’s consequences depend on whom you ask.

A 2023 Brookings report says political party influences consumers’ expectations of inflation. Republicans tend to expect higher inflation when Democrats are in the presidency, while Democrats expect higher inflation when Republicans are in control.

Is inflation better under Democrats or Republicans? There’s a difference between absolute rate and trends.

American Economic Association researchers concluded that from 1945 to 2016, the average inflation rate was lower under Democratic presidents than under Republicans, but inflation often fell under Republicans and rose under Democrats.

The researchers said these differences were due to factors like supply shocks, consumer expectations and foreign economic growth, which “might be considered blends of good policy and good luck.”

As long as the Bureau of Labor Statistics has kept track, the highest yearover-year inflation rate, 9.9%, happened under Democrat Jimmy Carter. The lowest year-over-year inflation rate, 1.4%, happened under Democrat John F. Kennedy.

The second-highest year-over-year inflation rate, 8%, occurred under Republican Gerald Ford, and the second lowest, 1.4%, was under Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower.

Inflation is constantly in flux, its causes often difficult to track.