QB Levis set up for greatness – or not
Everything the Tennessee Titans have done the past three months — from the hires and firings to the free agent acquisitions to the difficult decisions to let stars like Derrick Henry walk — must be viewed through the lens of building around Will Levis.
The Titans’ future hinges on Levis developing into a franchise quarterback. Simple as that. The better he looks, the better all of the Titans’ other moves look. And if he doesn’t get better — well, it probably won’t matter how good the offseason moves were.
Quarterbacks seldom get better in vacuums. The Titans’ offseason decisions have seemed lab-designed to support Levis’ growth. An offensive-minded coach in Brian Callahan. A new offensive coordinator in Nick Holz. A legendary offensive line coach in Bill Callahan. The best free agent wide receiver (Calvin Ridley) and center (Lloyd Cushenberry) on the market. A multi-talented running back in Tony Pollard. And in all likelihood, a future stalwart at left tackle in the top 10 of the NFL draft.
That’s a lot of change, all tailored to insulate Levis so the former secondround pick can blossom into one of the NFL’s elites.
So . . . does this sort of thing work? From 2000 to 2022, there were 21 rookie quarterbacks who matched Levis’ profile: picked in the first or second round, started six or more games, won three or fewer. Seventeen went on to start six or more games again in Year 2. Nine made gigantic strides, posting winning records. Eight didn’t, floundering in mediocrity or worse.
The Tennessean analyzed the offseason moves the teams of these 17 quarterbacks made heading into their second seasons and found two fairly decisive trends — one that should make Titans fans feel very good about the outlook for 2024, and one that might make them a
little nervous.
The good news: Signing Calvin Ridley is a great start
Six of the nine quarterbacks who made significant jumps in Year 2 benefited from their teams adding a new No. 1 receiver. Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence led their squads to winning records after their general managers signed a new top receiver in free agency. Joe Burrow and Zach Wilson had winning records as starters after their teams used early first-round picks on Ja’Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson.
By comparison, only one of the eight quarterbacks in the losing group benefited from his team signing a No. 1 receiver (Alex Smith) and just two played for teams that used early first-round picks on receivers. One of those two,
Derek Carr, was still on the losing side, but did improve his record from 3-13 to 7-9 on the back of the Raiders drafting Amari Cooper and signing Michael Crabtree.
Simply put: Giving a second-year quarterback a star receiver to throw to translates to wins a lot more often than not. That’s the best sign for Levis.
The bad news: Will Levis and the staff turnover problem
Staggeringly, all eight of the quarterbacks in this sample who had losing records in Year 2 had different offensive coordinators from their rookie seasons. Just three of the nine passers in the winning group had to deal with staff turnover.
It’s important, of course, to look at the context behind those coaching changes. Seven of the eight new offensive coordinators in question were hired by coaches with defense or special teams backgrounds. Five of the nine successful quarterbacks, by contrast, played for head coaches with offensive backgrounds.
Nevertheless, this connection is tough to ignore. Out of 11 second-year quarterbacks with first-year offensive coordinators, eight posted losing records. Two of the three exceptions were former No. 1 draft picks playing for offensive-minded head coaches who had won or would go on to win Super Bowls.
What’s the verdict for Will Levis, Tennessee Titans?
There are only so many ways for bad teams to rebuild. Fourteen of these 17 teams signed at least one starting offensive lineman in free agency. Eight hired new head coaches. Eight used firstround picks on offensive players. It’s not as if the good teams invented a position called “the quarterback helper” who immediately turned their second-year quarterbacks into Peyton Manning, or the bad teams hired guys called “bust makers” who sabotaged their passers at every turn.
The continuity concern is real, but Levis also played for three offensive coordinators in his last three years of college, so he’s used to making adjustments there. The receiver boost is also real, but it’s not as if Mariota, Goff and Lawrence found success specifically because they got to play with Rishard Matthews, Robert Woods and Christian Kirk.
What’s important is the Titans are putting Levis in position to succeed. The supporting cast and staff are steps in the right direction. But that support will be as crucial to molding Levis as Levis is in mining the most from his support.
Nick Suss is the Titans beat writer for The Tennessean. Contact Nick at nsuss@gannett.com . Follow Nick on X, the platform formerly called Twitter, @nicksuss.