From red to blue with the Latino vote

Now that the countdown for the general election on November 8 has begun, the additions and subtractions to arrive at the magic number of 270 electoral votes that guarantee the US presidency intensify.

As in a chess game, campaigns begin to move their pieces to determine where to invest and where it is not worth doing to increase the tally of electoral votes.

But as we face an untraditional choice, the race for the 270 is becoming quite unpredictable.

However, the narrative of previous elections is being felt more strongly in this election cycle: the Latino vote will be crucial in some states and even has the potential to tip the balance in favor of the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, in states that have favored Republicans in previous elections.

The common denominator for this happening is called Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate who, with his rhetoric and divisive and xenophobic proposals, is serving as a driving force for the Latino vote.

Take the example of Arizona and its 11 electoral votes. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win Arizona was Bill Clinton during his re-election in 1996.

In 2008, Barack Obama lost Arizona by just nine percentage points, despite it being the home state of then Republican presidential contender, Senator John McCain, who won with 54% of the vote over 45% for Obama.

Despite being a state with 2,056,456 Latinos, Arizona has been the epicenter of anti-immigrant initiatives such as the infamous SB 1070, and in the name of fighting illegal immigration has resorted to the use of racial profiling that affected even Hispanic citizens and permanent residents and had a negative effect on the state’s economy.

The anti-immigration law of 2010 laid the groundwork for greater efforts in voter registration and mobilization in the hopes of painting the red state blue.

In 2012, the Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, beat Obama in this border state 54% to 44%.

However, since 2010 the state’s Republican leaders have continued isolating the Latino vote through various figures, including Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio and former Governor Jan Brewer. Both support Trump.

Now various organizations, including Mi Familia Vota, and several Democratic politicians, are pushing not only the registration but also the mobilization of Latino voters. The expectation is, as always, that the Democratic Party must invest in the Latino vote and not take it for granted.

According to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO), in Arizona there 625,464 registered Latino voters, 17% of all registered voters in that state.

In every election cycle factors have converged for Arizona to be placed on the list of swing states: the rise in the Latino population, especially people eligible to vote, and a Republican Party determined to alienate this important electoral sector.

But here, as in other states in play, there is a factor that will be decisive: Democrats must invest in and court the Latino vote. Doing so may alter the electoral map in some states and tip the balance in their favor.