Will old habits help or hurt the GOP?
Republicans have a chance to take back the Senate after what was for them a disastrous 2020-21 that saw control of the chamber go to the Democrats.
To win back the chamber, Republicans would need to pick up just one seat, with races in Arizona, New Hampshire, Nevada and Georgia as the best opportunities.
But if flipping seats is hard, holding seats will also be no small feat, especially with a slate of potential candidates facing allegations of sexual impropriety and domestic violence. Three Senate candidates backed by former President Donald Trump have faced allegations of domestic violence.
In 2010, Republicans nearly took back the Senate in a wave election, but failed partially because of poor candidates in two winnable seats: Christine O’Donnell spent time and money trying to convince voters she wasn’t a witch and Sharron Angle found it tough to be taken seriously after saying some American cities had succumbed to Sharia law.
Or the 2012 Senate elections, where Richard Mourdock lost an Indiana seat by saying rape pregnancies were planned by God, and Todd Akin, after leading in the polls, lost his bid for a Missouri seat by trying to make a distinction between “legitimate” and presumably illegitimate rape.
And don’t forget the Democrats’ win of an Alabama Senate seat a few years back when Republicans put forth the Trump-endorsed candidate who was an alleged pedophile. In other words, candidates matter.
Senate Republican leaders can do their best to talk bad candidates out of a race, but in the end they can’t stop a candidate from running, nor stop voters from choosing that candidate.
Partisan base voters are often willing to overlook candidates’ shortcomings, because the candidate’s positions excite them, even though those shortcomings turn off persuadable voters and turn out partisans on the other side.
Unfortunately, losing isn’t the worst thing that can happen. Sometimes awful candidates win. And then we’re stuck with them for at least two, or four or even six years (in the case of senators).
Will Republicans take back the Senate or will they shoot themselves in the foot, again? Only time will tell.
Senate Republican leaders can do their best to talk bad candidates out of a race, but in the end they can’t stop a candidate from running, nor stop voters from choosing that candidate.