Keselowski driver to beat at Michigan

Truex, Earnhardt Jr. solid back-up bets

Following all practice sessions at Michigan International Speedway, Michigan native Brad Keselowski (81) tops the rating chart as the most likely to win Sunday’s FireKeepers 400. He’s never won on his home track, but his Saturday practices were impressive enough to give him a slight nod over race favorites Kevin Harvick (5-1) and Jimmie Johnson (7-1).

During Saturday’s early session, Keselowski had the fifth fastest lap (197.395 mph) and then in the later 55-minute session he was second fastest (194.013 mph), while also having the second-best 10-consecutive lap average.

Keselowski has an edge with the reduced downforce for this race, where the spoiler has been lowered from 3.5 to 2.5 inches and the splitter shortened to two inches. The package is on a trial basis and will also be run next month at Kentucky Speedway. The effect is that cars will be much looser around the turns on what is one of the fastest tracks on the circuit, and Keselowski loves loose cars.

Keselowski is currently on a Michigan run of finishing 13th or better in his past nine starts, including runner-up in 2012 and two third-place finishes. Between outstanding practices, the reduced downforce fitting his style and wanting to win at home, he’s the driver to beat.

LOGANO’S FIRST WIN?

After a series-leading six wins last season, Joey Logano (8-1) has yet to win through 14 races. However history might be on his side simply because of starting from the pole, which has produced more Michigan winners (19) than any other start position. Three of the past five Michigan 3. Martin Truex Jr. 4. Carl Edwards 5. Kevin Harvick 6. Kyle Busch 7. Joey Logano 8. Matt Kenseth 9. Chase Elliott 10. Dale Earnhardt Jr. winners started from the pole, including Logano with his lone Michigan win in 2013. In 93 Sprint Cup races at Michigan, 70 of the winners (75.2 percent) have started in the top 10. His Penske teammate Keselowski starts 15th. The last driver to win from 15th was Las Vegan Kurt Busch in 2007.

MANUFACTURERS’ SUPER BOWL

With Motor City as the backdrop of this race, the manufacturers treat this as kind of their Super Bowl for bragging rights. Ford leads the way with 34 wins. Chevrolet is next with 23 and Toyota has five, including last fall with Matt Kenseth (the Camry is made in Georgetown, Kentucky). Kurt Busch’s three Michigan wins have come while driving for three different manufacturers. He won in a Ford in 2003, a Dodge in 2007 and a Chevrolet last June. He’s 12-1 this week and was rated the 11th best candidate to win Sunday.

BEST LONG SHOT Team Penske looks strong this weekend, and the same goes for its affiliate program, the No. 21 Wood Brothers Ford driven by Ryan Blaney (80-1), who was fourth fastest (197.406 mph) in Saturday’s early practice session. He’s currently on a nice run on the season with a 10.2 average finish in his past five starts.

BEST BET AGAINST

Las Vegan Kyle Busch (8-1) is favored over several quality drivers in match-ups, but he might be a good driver to fade this week as he rolls in with some rough recent and past history. He’s finished 30th or worse in his past three starts this season and has been 31st or worse in four of his past five Michigan starts.

BEST BETS

Keselowski looks like the driver to beat, but a good back-up plan at the bet window would include wagers on Martin Truex Jr. (7-1) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (18-1).