Minor legislator gaining support to win in Brazil

RIO DE JANEIRO — As recently as two months ago, few people in Brazil other than Jair Bolsonaro’s most ardent supporters believed the far-right congressman had more than an outside shot of winning the race to lead Latin America’s largest nation.

Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had been ahead in the polls for a year despite a corruption conviction and a jail sentence that began in April.

Even though Bolsonaro always placed second in the polls, his support hovered around 30 percent and analysts said he had likely reached his ceiling. His history of comments offensive to women, blacks and gays, combined with his praise of the 1964-85 military dictatorship and a largely unremarkable 27 years in Congress created the general impression that, even if he survived the first round of voting, he would ultimately be defeated against almost any competitor in the second round.

But then several things happened that helped elevate the former army captain to front-runner: Bolsonaro got stabbed and nearly died, traditional coalitions on the left and right collapsed and it became apparent that social media had replaced television airtime as the most dominant force in the elections.

Those events reverberated in a nation hungry for radical change after years of turmoil that provoked rage at the ruling class.

Through it all, Bolsonaro’s simple campaign promises to clean up corruption and confront rising crime with brutal force have resonated with a population hungry for new approaches.

“How did Donald Trump become president in the United States?” said Carlos Manhanelli, political marketing specialist and chairman of the Brazilian Association of Political Consultants. “It’s basically the same thing. Bolsonaro is speaking to the minds of voters. He isn’t worried about being politically correct.”