Las Vegas Review-Journal (Sunday)
Sharps favor Clemson in CFP title game
Public, though, likes top-ranked LSU, its standout QB Burrow
Monday’s College Football Playoff national title game shapes up as a monster Pros versus Joes showdown at Las Vegas sportsbooks.
The betting public is in love with Louisiana State, which was as high as a 6½-point favorite Saturday at the Golden Nugget. But professional sports bettors are all over Clemson, which dipped as low as a 5-point underdog Saturday at Circa.
The line stayed at 6 at the Westgate and William Hill as both books were overflowing with LSU money.
“It’s been all LSU. There’s no stopping it right now,” said Ed Salmons, Westgate vice president of risk. “You usually don’t see a title game this lopsided.”
The money was 5-1 in favor of LSU at the Westgate, where the margin was 50-1 on Tuesday night.
LSU (14-0) is 9-4-1 against the spread and has covered its past three games, including a 63-28 blowout of Oklahoma in the CFP semifinals in which Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow threw seven touchdown passes in the first half.
“The public bets what they see last, and what they see is LSU beating Alabama (46-41) and killing Texas A&M (50-7), Georgia (37-10) and Oklahoma,” Salmons said. “This is their team, and they’re not going to stop betting them now.”
LSU, playing close to home at the Superdome in New Orleans, opened as a 3-point favorite at Circa before a flood of money sent the line soaring to 6, when some sharp bettors took Clemson at plus 6 (-105).
Circa oddsmaker Matt Lindeman stopped short of calling the early line move an overreaction.
“I’m tired of saying it’s an overreaction because I say it every damn game with LSU, and they end up making me look bad,” he said. “They haven’t really shown a chink in their armor yet. Until we see some type of weakness, it’s hard to say it’s an overreaction.”
Clemson (14-0) is 10-1 ATS with nine outright wins in its past 11 bowl games, including a 44-16 blowout of Alabama in last year’s CFP championship as a 5-point underdog.
Clemson is 11-3 ATS this season and has covered its past five games, including a 29-23 comeback win over Ohio State in the CFP semifinals. It’s riding a 29-game win streak, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence is 25-0 as a starter.
“I love Clemson. I think that number’s ridiculously high,” pro sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw said. “Clemson hasn’t lost in two years, and they’re the defending champion. They’re probably a little bit less than LSU, but I’ll take six points and the better defensive team and hope they can figure out a way to slow Burrow down a little bit.”
Salmons thinks Clemson’s defense will be the difference against an LSU offense averaging more than 50 points in its past six games. Ohio State’s 23 points were the most scored against Clemson this season.
“Clemson’s defense has always been solid, and it usually matches speed with anyone in the country,” Salmons said. “You don’t see teams score 45 and 50 points against Clemson. They stopped (Alabama quarterback) Tua (Tagovailoa) last year. If they can stop him, I think they can stop Burrow or at least slow him down.
“I think LSU will struggle against Clemson’s offense and the way Lawrence can run the ball. If I bet the total, I’d bet under.”
The total is 69. Clemson has gone under in three of its past four games, and LSU has gone under in two of its past three.
The safest bet of all, according to William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich, is that the compelling matchup will be the most heavily bet college football game of all time.
“You can bank on it,” he said. “You’ve got two undefeated teams, and the defending champ is the underdog. Burrow is the Heisman Trophy winner, and Lawrence is supposed to be the next coming of a god. Betting is at an all-time high. The economy is good. It will be the biggest-bet college football game ever. For sure.”