Las Vegas Review-Journal (Sunday)
New (Reds) blood seen in NL Central
Cincinnati gets slight edge over rising Cubs
The National League Central appears poised for a new name at the top.
Sharp bettors targeted the Cincinnati Reds early in the offseason, moving their World Series odds from the 50-1 range down to 20-1, despite their finishing in fourth in the division last season.
The Chicago Cubs, who also didn’t make the playoffs last season, are next in the divisional odds. The two teams who did reach the postseason — the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers — are third and fourth, respectively.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are clearly slotted fifth, but could lurk as a surprise team.
Here are team-by-team breakdowns, listed in order of the teams’ odds to win the division at the Westgate:
Cincinnati Reds ■ Futures odds: 20-1 to win World Series, 10-1 to win NL, 2-1 to win division ■ Season win total: 32½ ■ Last season: 75-87 (fourth in
division)
■ Outlook: Westgate sportsbook manager Randy Blum is firmly behind the Reds to win the division, and that’s why better prices on Cincinnati can be found at other sportsbooks around town.
“I’m really high on the Reds and consider the others (in the division) to be a notch below,” he said.
Blum said he expects outfielder Nick Castellanos to thrive after heading to Cincinnati from Detroit, “a horrible hitter’s park,” and could be a perfect fit with the NL using a designated hitter this season.
The Reds have solid arms in Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray and a good lineup that includes Eugenio Suarez, who hit 49 home runs last season.
Handicapper Dave Cokin (@davecokin, WagerTalk) said he is “not sold” on the Reds because they lack the “organizational strength” of some other teams that could be important in this unusual season.
“They’re going to be OK,” he said.
Chicago Cubs
■ Futures odds: 20-1 to win World Series, 10-1 to win NL, +225 to win division
■ Season win total: 32
■ Last season: 84-78 (third in division)
■ Outlook: The Cubs’ expected dynasty after winning the 2016 World Series hasn’t materialized, and they missed the playoffs last year for the first time in four seasons.
“They’re an older team now,” Blum said, especially workhorse starter Jon Lester.
One bright spot could be a return to form by starter Yu Darvish, who had a strong second half last season, Blum said. Las Vegan Kris Bryant is moving into the leadoff spot.
Cokin is also bearish on the Cubs. “They’ve got some holes on the roster,” he said. “I’m very concerned about their bullpen.”
St. Louis Cardinals ■ Futures odds: 30-1 to win World Series, 15-1 to win NL, +275 to win division
■ Season win total: 31½ ■ Last season: 91-71 (first in division, lost 4-0 to Washington in NLCS) ■ Outlook: Blum sees nothing to recommend — or not recommend — the Cardinals this season. “They’re just a solid team, but I don’t see anything great,” he said. “They’re just missing something.” Their strength is probably in their
rotation, with Jake Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Miles Mikolas and Adam Wainwright.
Milwaukee Brewers
■ Futures odds: 40-1 to win World Series, 20-1 to win NL, 6-1 to win division
■ Season win total: 30
■ Last season: 89-73 (second in division, lost to Washington in wildcard game)
■ Outlook: Cokin is high on the Brewers, especially their bullpen led by Josh Hader.
“They’re the team to beat,” he said. “They’re set up well.”
Outfielder Christian Yelich is in for the long haul after signing a nine-year, $215 million deal in the offseason.
Blum is “not as high on” the Brewers, who are seeking a third straight playoff berth.
“They’ve been overachieving recently when you look at their pitching staff,” he said.
Pittsburgh Pirates
■ Futures odds: 200-1 to win World Series, 100-1 to win NL, 20-1 to win division
■ Season win total: 24½
■ Last season: 69-93 (fifth in division)
■ Outlook: Blum said he sees the Pirates as similar to the Miami Marlins in the NL East — teams that will be better than their records but will struggle because of all the good teams ahead of them.
First baseman Josh Bell anchors the lineup.
Best bets
(Based on Review-Journal analysis, informed by opinions from bookmakers and handicappers)
■ Futures: Reds to win World Series (25-1 at MGM Resorts), Reds to win division (+275 at MGM Resorts), Brewers to win division (6-1 at Westgate) for longer shot
■ Win total: Cubs under 32