BETTING BREAKDOWN

Doug Fitz, @fitz_doug, Systemplays.com

Dolphins (0-0) at Patriots (0-0)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Patriots -7, 41 ½

■ Analysis: There are too many question marks with the Patriots’ revamped offense. Cam Newton, Tom Brady’s replacement, has publicly expressed his confidence, but the fact of the matter is the 2015 NFL MVP has not been a capable quarterback for several years.

■ By the numbers: Division underdogs are 141-90-10 ATS (61 percent) in the first three games of the season with an 18 percent Return on Investment since 2005. … The Dolphins fit another system that’s 303-212-15 ATS (59 percent) with a 15 percent ROI since 2005. … In Week 1, division underdogs are riding a 21-5-1 cover streak and are 17-2-1 ATS in games with a total of 47 or less.

■ Pick:

Patriots 28, Dolphins 24

Browns (0-0) at Ravens (0-0)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Ravens -7 ½½ , 47

■ Analysis: I’ll give new Browns coach Kevin Stefanski the benefit of the doubt to re-energize a capable offense that has suffered in recent years partly because of bad coaching. It’s time for Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield to step up his game.

■ By the numbers: Baltimore covered eight of its final nine games last season. … Cleveland dealt the Ravens their only regular-season home loss last season and has covered the last two meetings at Baltimore. … Division underdogs are 21-5-1 ATS in Week 1 and 141-90-10 ATS in the first three games.

■ Pick: Ravens 27, Browns 24

Jets (0-0) at Bills (0-0)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Bills -6 ½½ , 39

■ Analysis: With the potent running attack of Frank Gore and Le’Veon Bell, this game could be a grind-itout, low-scoring affair. A successful division underdog system applies here on the Jets, but the under is a better alternative. It will be interesting to see how newly acquired wide receiver Stefon Diggs fits into the Bills’ offense.

■ By the numbers: The under is 23-9 in Buffalo’s last 32 games, and New York has gone under in five of its past six games. …. The road team has won and covered the last four meetings. … In Week 1, division underdogs are 21-5-1 ATS and 17-2-1 ATS in games with a total of 47 or less.

■ Pick:

Jets 20, Bills 17

Raiders (0-0) at Panthers (0-0)

■ Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

■ Line/total: Raiders -3, 47 ½

■ Analysis: This one is hard to handicap. The Panthers have a new coach in Matt Rhule and a new quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater. With no preseason, it’s hard to gauge Carolina. But the Panthers still have All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey, who almost always kick-starts their offense.

■ By the numbers: The market has overreacted in pushing up the Raiders to 3-point favorites after the line opened at pick’em. I don’t see that move as correct. … Las Vegas is on a 2-5 spread slide, and the Panthers are on a 1-6-1 ATS skid. Carolina is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. … The under is 21-11 in the Raiders’ last 32 games. … The over was 11-5 in Panthers games last season.

■ Pick:

Panthers 31, Raiders 27

Seahawks (0-0) at Falcons (0-0)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Seahawks -2 ½ , 49

■ Analysis: Last season, the Falcons had the secondlowest sack total in the league with 28. They’ve made some offseason acquisitions to improve their pass rush, but Seahawks QB Russell Wilson can shred that poor defense.

■ By the numbers: Atlanta started 1-7 last season. … Seattle is on a 9-3-1 cover streak in regular-season road games, and the visiting team is 12-4-1 ATS in the Seahawks’ last 17 regular-season games. … The over is 16-8 in Seattle’s last 24 regular-season games.

Pick: Seahawks 28, Falcons 17

Eagles (0-0) at Washington (0-0)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Eagles -5 ½ , 42

■ Analysis: Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz is overrated, and Washington Football Team QB Dwayne Haskins was awful and definitely not ready to start last season. The only handicap I can muster up comes from a successful division underdog system.

■ By the numbers: The Eagles have won and covered the last four meetings. … Washington is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 home games. … In Week 1, division underdogs are riding a 21-5-1 cover streak and are 17-2-1 ATS in games with a total of 47 or less. … Division underdogs are 14190-10 ATS in the first three games.

■ Pick: Eagles 24, Washington 21

Bears (0-0) at Lions (0-0)

■ Time: 10 a.m.

■ Line/total: Lions -2 ½½ , 42

■ Analysis: The Bears will start Mitchell Trubisky but have a capable backup in Nick Foles. Their offense is questionable, but their defense should be one of the best in the league. The line move from pick to Detroit -3 is misguided.

■ By the numbers: Chicago was 1-7 ATS on the road last season and is on a 4-13 spread slide overall. … The under is 11-2 in Detroit’s last 13 home games. … In Week 1, division underdogs are 21-5-1 ATS and 17-2-1 ATS in games with a total of 47 or less.

■ Pick: Bears 20, Lions 13 10 a.m.

Colts -8 ½ , 45

I’ve never had much faith in Philip Rivers, especially as a road favorite. The general assumption is the Jags are tanking this season. It’s too much to expect the Colts to cover more than a touchdown on the road, so I’ll give a weak endorsement to the supposedly terrible Jags.

By the numbers: The Colts have lost six straight openers and nine of 10. … Jacksonville has won and covered the last four home games against Indianapolis. … The Jaguars are 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Colts.

Colts 28, Jaguars 27

Packers (0-0) at Vikings (0-0)

10 a.m., KVVU-5

Vikings -2 ½½ , 44

Even though Aaron Rodgers showed signs of age and ineffectiveness last season, I’ll take him over inconsistent Kirk Cousins. I’ll hope to get the key number of 3, but I’ll still recommend the Packers as a weak pick. The Vikings have won and covered their last four openers and five of six. … The under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings. … In Week 1, division underdogs are 21-5-1 ATS and 17-2-1 ATS in games with a total of 47 or less.

Packers 27, Vikings 24 ½½ ½ ½ ½