Biden win has upside for the GOP

WHAT a difference the Senate makes. Last week, a potential Joe Biden victory looked like the first step toward the destruction of a number of institution norms. He flirted with packing the Supreme Court. He supported eliminating the filibuster. He wanted to add states to pack the Senate for Democrats.

He may still feel that way, but — assuming he wins — Biden is unlikely to have the votes to do anything about it. Confounding expert projections, Republicans will likely hold the U.S. Senate majority. Republicans appear to have 50 seats. They should win two more seats in Georgia, although each is headed to a January runoff. It’s not much, but it should keep Sen. Mitch McConnell in charge.

A Biden presidency wouldn’t be a good thing by any means. But it’s substantially less worrisome if Republicans control one house of Congress. Institutional norms are safe. Liberal priorities, such as the Green New Deal and federal funding for abortion, are non-starters. And if Biden prevails, it sets up the GOP well for the next several years.

A Donald Trump victory was going to make 2022 problematic for Republicans. That’s not a Trump issue. Over the past two decades, the midterm election during an incumbent president’s second term has been disastrous for the party in power. In 2014, Republicans gained nine seats and the majority in the Senate and ended up with 247 seats in the House. That was the largest Republican majority in the lower chamber since 1930. In 2006, Democrats gained five Senate seats and 32 seats in the House. They took over the majority in both as well.

Historically, then, a Biden presidency would substantially brighten Republican prospects in 2022. I think the GOP will take the House, although they have a slim path to winning it this year as of late last week. They’ll likely hold their Senate majority in 2022 and may even pick up a couple of seats.

In 2010, Barack Obama’s first midterm, Republicans picked up 64 seats in the House and six seats in the Senate. In 2018, Democrats gained 41 seats in the House, although a favorable map allowed the GOP to expand their Senate majority.

In many ways, the fate of Nevada Republicans is tied inversely to Trump. If Trump had won, Nevada Republicans would have been steamrolled in 2022. Gov. Steve Sisolak’s inept handling of the coronavirus would have made him vulnerable but still formidable.

But if Biden wins, Nevada Republicans could be favorites to win races for governor, attorney general and other statewide offices. Redistricting is a wild card, but they could conceivably retake control of the state Senate. With the right candidate — paging Assemblywoman Melissa Hardy — Rep. Susie Lee is in trouble, too, assuming she holds on this year. Even incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto would face a tough battle.

It’s usually hard to defeat an incumbent president. Trump was deeply polarizing. The media spent years promoting a fantasy about Russian collusion. The coronavirus derailed an amazing economy. If he didn’t botch the first debate and catch coronavirus, Trump probably would have won anyway. But Biden may not even run for re-election in 2024. He once called himself a “transition” candidate.

That gives Republicans a good chance to retake the White House in 2024. Their bench is deep, too. Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Tom Cotton and Ron DeSantis will potentially headline a crowded primary.

The Trump campaign should investigate every possible instance of voter fraud. That’s important. But Republican needn’t think the world is over if Biden wins — as long as Republicans hold the Senate. That would hobble Biden’s radical agenda and position the GOP for substantial gains.