Cold truth: Bowles playing with fire if Bucs don’t win

THE reputation is pristine. The likability is off the charts. He’s had a home in the NFL practically his entire adult life, despite walking into the league as an undrafted free agent out of Temple in the mid-1980s. He spent eight years as a player, two as a scout and the past 24 as a coach. He’s drawn paychecks, at one time or another, from 10 of the NFL’S 32 teams.

Todd Bowles is a fixture in a league where few survive.

So why does it feel like his days in Tampa Bay are numbered?

It’s uncomfortable talking about a man’s job security before a season even begins, but it’s reality for a team caught between hope and the salary cap. Not many expect the Buccaneers to be a formidable opponent in 2023, and Bowles could be the scapegoat whether he is responsible or not.

Minutes before his season-opening news conference early last week, an email arrived with the odds from betonline. ag for the coach most likely to be fired first this season. Bowles was No. 2 at 6-1, right behind Dallas coach Mike Mccarthy.

The speculation is as logical as it is unfair. At 59, Bowles is no longer the hotshot up-and-comer who was named an assistant coach in Miami in 2008 or who was honored as the NFL Assistant Coach of the Year in Arizona in 2014.

Bowles’ acumen as a defensive coordinator is still considered top of the charts, but as a coach in the NFL he is standing on shaky ground.

His career 32-49 record with the Jets and Bucs sounds like something out of a bygone era of Lindy Infante or Joe Bugel. In today’s NFL, coaches are not often afforded the opportunity of a sixth season in headsets when their winning percentage is below .400.

That Bowles is getting another shot speaks to his standing in the league. Also, to the unique circumstances surrounding his hiring.

It was 16 months ago that Bowles was unexpectedly handed the keys to the huddle in a rare hiring of a coach so late in the offseason. His hasty ascension from defensive coordinator was necessitated by Bruce Arians’ sudden retirement — or, if you prefer the sinister version, Tom Brady’s hegoes-or-i-go ultimatum.

The Bucs tumbled from a 24-9 record the previous two seasons to an 8-9 mark under Bowles. Depending on your point of view, his lack of imagination was either the culprit or his steady hand was the glue that held a deteriorating roster together long enough to win a weak NFC South.

Either way, he will get no circumstantial hall pass this season. Either the Bucs show improvement in wins and losses — or at least a recognizable direction forward — or Bowles will likely pay the price.

“Getting into year two and having a full offseason to really think through what you want for the identity, being able to meet with me and my staff as much as he did, I think it will naturally become a little bit more of what Todd was envisioning,” general manager Jason Licht said. “Every coach is different, every coach has different thoughts of what they want. Todd is no different in that. Like I’ve said before, we’re in lockstep. I agree with Todd on everything he wants for this football team.”

What he wants and what the roster can provide could be drastically different.

Bowles has a team with a firsttime offensive coordinator, either an unproven or a journeyman quarterback, nearly 30 percent of the salary cap tied up in dead money going to players no longer in Tampa Bay and a boatload of rookies replacing veterans.

Surely, he can see the potential pitfalls ahead?

“Predictions don’t bother me,” Bowles said. “It’s how you finish it.”

There’s an argument to be made that Bowles has stepped into two unenviable situations as coach. The Jets have not won a division title in more than 20 years, and the Bucs were destined to take a step backward as Brady grew older and the roster got thinner.

Unfortunately, the NFL is not a league built for excuses. Not for the dozens of players who get released every summer and not for the handful of coaches relieved of their duties every winter.

Two coaches in Tampa Bay history reached the playoffs in their debut season.

The first was Jon Gruden, who won the Super Bowl in 2002.

The second was Bowles, who won a division title in 2022.

Gruden parlayed that Super Bowl into a lengthy stay in Tampa Bay, despite never winning another playoff game.

As for Bowles?

The odds say he won’t be given that much slack.

Jefferee Woo Tampa Bay Times/tns Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles is as likable as he is even-tempered and funny. He is also 32-49 after five seasons while guiding the Jets and Bucs.