Frosted looks like Triple Crown villain
Belmont Park’s longer distance should suit 5-1 choice just fine
Waxing nostalgic this week, I watched a few documentaries about Secretariat. His greatness was evident in grainy old videos, as was the reverence for him from grizzled horseplayers to casual fans alike.
In 1973, when Secretariat scored his freakish 31-length victory in the Belmont, he snapped a 25-year Triple Crown drought. A short time later, Seattle Slew and Affirmed accomplished the feat in back-to-back years. Thirty-seven years later, we wonder if today is the day.
What’s at stake at 3:50 p.m., when the latch springs at the starting gate in the 147th Belmont Stakes? Immortality for American Pharoah, if he can storm home
ANALYSIS first at the end of a 1½-mile journey.
We’ve been down this road before. Since 1978, 13 talented 3-year-olds had their chance to join the fabled list, only to fall short in the Belmont. In sports handicapping, sample size for trends is a hotly debated topic. We’re talking about an 0-for-37 streak here, folks. That has to mean something.
American Pharoah and seven others venture into the great unknown this afternoon. This group never has and never again will take on the challenge of competing at this marathon distance.
Trainer Bob Baffert’s charge has been installed as the 3-5 morning-line favorite. His win in the Kentucky Derby was workmanlike. Breaking from an outer post, he angled over and systematically wore the front runners down.
In the Preakness, when the rains fell moments before the start of the race, it spelled doom for the competition. Jockey Victor Espinoza called an audible and darted for the lead, splashing to victory with the greatest of ease.
American Pharoah’s size and powerful strides are a thing of beauty, but versatility might be his most valuable trait. He has a target on his back, and the chess match will begin early in this race.
The main wild card is No. 8 Materiality (6-1), who lost all chance in the Kentucky Derby when pinched as the gates opened. You have to draw a line through that race and reflect on his impressive win in the Florida Derby. He has the tactical speed to compromise American Pharoah. The five-week freshening has worked twice previously in the Belmont for trainer Todd Pletcher.
Out of the No. 1 post, Mubtaahij (10-1), the eighth-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, merits exotics consideration mostly because of his world-class trainer, Michael de Kock. This horse could show significant improvement merely because he is now more acclimated to his surroundings, having been in North America for more than six weeks.
And now I turn to the archvillain. There is usually a spoiler to the Triple Crown party, and as they galloped out in the Kentucky Derby, my mind was made up that No. 6 Frosted (5-1) would be my choice in the Belmont.
His profile is eerily similar to former Belmont champs Jazil and Summer Bird, who both passed tiring horses in the Kentucky Derby and relished the extra ground in the Belmont. Frosted was the only horse to stage a rally in Louisville against extremely soft fractions. Based in New York, he has the added distance today to sustain that late charge and upset the applecart again. Look for jockey Joel Rosario to have Frosted much closer to the pacesetters and pounce on his prey at the top of the stretch.
I’ll be playing Frosted to win and place and in an exacta box with No. 5 American Pharoah. For trifectas, I’ll be keying Frosted and American Pharoah on top, with Materiality, Mubtaahij and No. 7 Keen Ice underneath.
In the callous world of sports wagering, the bottom line is all that matters. Here’s hoping I’m partially wrong and still can make money.
I would love to see American Pharoah romp so we can relish the moment — and for the short-term good of the sport. Brian Blessing (Sportsbookradio.com) is a Las Vegas radio host and handicapper. Follow him on Twitter: @ BrianBlessing.