Inflated NBA totals provide profit opportunities
With NBA teams launching 3-pointers at a record rate this season, totals have regularly soared into the 220s and beyond, topping out at 242 for a Warriors-Rockets game Jan. 20 that went under in Golden State’s 125-108 win.
Handicapper Doug Fitz (Systemplays.com) has cashed in this season by betting on the under in games that fall under a simple yet effective NBA totals system he devised. The formula, which is 20-9 (69 percent) this season, calls for a play on the under in any matchup of teams with straight-up winning percentages of at least 60 percent.
Based on past performance, Fitz said, the system works best for regular-season games in October, December, March and April.
“It does real well in December and picks up again in March,” he said.
Fortunately for me, he told me this before the NBA tipped off Wednesday, giving me plenty of time to load up on the system, which promptly went 3-0 as the RocketsClippers went under 235½ (122-103), the Wizards-Raptors went under 208 (105-96) and the Celtics-Cavaliers went way under 224½ (103-99).
But I didn’t bet on the system, opting instead to put my money on Utah State as a 4½-point favorite over UNLV, which, of course, won 66-59 to snap a school-tying record nine-game losing streak and cover the spread for the first time in more than a month. The Aggies’ horrendous shot selection was worse than this overweight, 48-year-old gunner in my weekly pickup game.
But I digress. Fitz’s system is based on the notion that good teams play decent defense.
“And the advantage on that one is you get teams like Golden State, who put up a ton of points and the total is inflated to begin with,” he said.
Despite leading the league in scoring with 118.1 points per game, the Warriors entered Thursday’s game against the Bulls with a 26-34 over-under record this season. The Rockets, who lead the league in 3-pointers attempted per game (40.5) and are second in scoring (115.1 ppg), have a 32-30 over-under mark.
The Warriors (50-10) and Cavaliers (41-18) still are heavy favorites to meet for an NBA Finals rematch, even though each team has a standout player out with an injury. Golden State is without Kevin Durant and the Cavaliers are missing Kevin Love. But both teams have losing records against the spread, with Golden State at 28-30-2 and Cleveland at 27-30-2.
The Nuggets are the NBA’s top trending over team, at 40-20-1, and the Suns are second with a 38-22 over-under mark.
The 76ers have the league’s best ATS record, at 37-23, though that might change with the loss of Joel Embiid to a season-ending injury.
The Heat are second with a 35-25-1 ATS mark, followed by the Thunder (34-25-1), Wizards (34-25), Spurs (3325-1) and Rockets (35-27).
Miami is the NBA’s hottest team ATS, going 17-3-1 since Jan. 17. The Heat are 3½-point favorites Friday over the Magic, who are on a 2-7 ATS slide.
The Bucks and Trail Blazers are tied for the NBA’s worst ATS record, at 23-36, and Orlando is next at 24-352. Milwaukee, mired in a 5-16 ATS slide, is a 3½-point home underdog Friday to the Clippers. BOXED OUT
Boxing hasn’t been the same since the days of Sugar Ray Leonard, Thomas Hearns, Marvin Hagler and Roberto Duran. Leonard and Hearns unified the WBC and WBA welterweight titles in their classic 1981 Fight of the Year.
On Saturday, Keith Thurman (27-0, 22 knockouts) and Danny Garcia (330, 19 KOs) will unify the same titles on a card that will be broadcast at 6 p.m. by CBS.
Thurman is a minus-215 favorite over Garcia (plus-185) at the Westgate after opening at minus-250, and the total is 10½ rounds, with the over a minus-200 favorite and the under plus-175.
“This is a pretty good matchup. It may be one of the better fights of the year,” Westgate sports book director Jay Kornegay said. “Garcia has got a better resume leading up to this fight, yet when I talk to some of the people I respect in the boxing world, they all seem to like Thurman to win the fight.
“They all say it should be a pick’em, but that Thurman’s going to win.” Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal. com or 702-383-0354. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.