Study: Solar industry undervalued

Scientists say effectiveness always underrated

Analysts have been underestimating the expansion of solar energy for nearly two decades, scientists report in a study released Friday. And that could be a serious problem for the industry and, maybe, the planet.

If policymakers believe solar is growing more slowly than it actually is, they might be less likely to prioritize the kinds of research and development that will help better integrate renewables onto the grid, such as improving battery storage technology. This could lead us to continue relying on more carbon-intensive energy sources.

“I think the most important risk is that the regulatory environment does not adapt in time to a rising share in solar energy,” said lead study author Felix Creutzig, a professor at the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, based in Germany.

The paper comes a day after the release of a much-anticipated study on the electric grid, ordered by Energy Secretary Rick Perry in April. The final report is somewhat more moderate than some renewable energy advocates had feared but still favorable to coal and nuclear power.

The new paper, published Friday in the journal Nature Energy, said that the deployment of solar energy has consistently outperformed the predictions made by so-called “integrated assessment models,” which are commonly used to evaluate the ways different social, economic and technological factors might mitigate climate change, since at least 1998. For instance, the authors said, the International Energy Agency has repeatedly predicted growth rates for solar deployment that are anywhere from 16 to 30 percent lower than their actual rates end up being.

The researchers outline several reasons for the discrepancy. For one thing, models have often failed to account for the policies different nations have put in place to speed the expansion of renewable energy. In the United States, an investment tax credit supports new solar installations, while other nations around the world have enacted feed-in tariffs, which compensate consumers for any renewable energy they generate and provide to the grid.

Also, the study notes, the costs of solar panels have been falling faster than expected. And the models might have also been overly optimistic in their assumptions about the expansion of other low-carbon technologies, such as nuclear power or carbon capture and storage technology.

David Victor, an energy policy expert at the University of California, San Diego who was not involved with the new research, suggested that solar’s relatively small share of the global electricity market also plays a significant role.

“When market share is small, big shifts in policy or technology can have a huge effect on growth,” he said in an email.