Las Vegas Review-Journal

Six teams to bet against this season

- Case Keefer A version of this column was posted on lasvegassu­n.com.

Dust off those vacant sports book seats and roll out the hot dog truck. It’s college football time. The sport had a soft opening of sorts this season with a handful of games scheduled for Saturday. This week, it’s right into the typical, full regular-season schedule.

Local bookmakers are prepared, and bettors should be too. Allow Talking Points to alleviate some of the pressure that comes with the late cram session. Here’s a list of teams to avoid in the sports book this year.

Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets return an ACC Coastal division-high 16 starters off a team that finished last season with four straight wins including upsets over Virginia Tech and Georgia. That means they should be great, right? Not quite. Georgia Tech was extremely fortunate to go 9-4 last year. It went 3-1 in games decided by less than a touchdown, and ranked sixth in the nation in recovering 66 percent of fumbles. Those are both red flags where some regression should be expected. Odds-wise, Georgia Tech starts the season behind divisional rivals Miami and Virginia Tech but ahead of North Carolina and Pittsburgh. It’s debatable at best that the Yellow Jackets are better than the Tar Heels and Panthers.

LSU

After a relative down season in 2016, the SEC West should be back as the best division in college football this year. That’s bad news for the Tigers, who have their work cut out in maintainin­g their place as the league’s second most prestigiou­s program behind Alabama. New coach Ed Orgeron did a decent job leading LSU and USC in an interim role over the last few years — a loss at home to Florida as a 14-point favorite last season precludes it from being described as anything better than that — but he’s still only 21-25-1 against the spread for his career. Adding to his first-year challenges are one of the toughest schedules in the nation and the loss of top playmakers on both sides of the ball. Journeyman senior quarterbac­k Danny Etling doesn’t inspire much confidence either, especially not with five of his top six targets departed.

USC

The Trojans are minus-110 to win the Pac-12 Conference, something they haven’t accomplish­ed in nine years.

The betting market is repeating its tried pattern. Every few years, betting slips on USC become a hot commodity as they have this season with it drawing the most tickets of any team to win the national championsh­ip at William Hill sports books. And every few years, USC ultimately disappoint­s. In 2015, the Trojans went 8-6 straight-up and 6-8 against the spread after similar hype. In 2012, it was even worse — 7-6 straight-up and 3-10 against the spread. USC does have the most talent in the Pac-12 this season, especially with 5-to-2 Heisman Trophy favorite Sam Darnold at quarterbac­k, but that doesn’t guarantee success. And it certainly doesn’t guarantee success in sports books. Even if USC turns into the national championsh­ip contender many

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