GRADUATION LOSSES HIT AIR FORCE HARD
expect, it will be tough covering point spreads inflated by public money every week.
Minnesota
The Big Ten was the toughest conference to find a bet-against. With the least experience of any team in the nation, Michigan was a strong candidate but coach Jim Harbaugh is too proven at consistently beating betting numbers. Penn State figures to carry high asking prices after last year’s breakthrough, but the rest of the conference looks ill equipped to combat its uptempo offensive attack. That leaves a crowded middle class to choose from, where Minnesota looks like it might have high expectations by default. The Golden Gophers could be favored in as many as eight games this season. They’re 4-9 against the spread as favorites in the last two seasons. Minnesota made one of the best hires in college football this offseason in Western Michigan’s P.J. Fleck, but its roster is not currently equipped with the type of personnel he needs to fully integrate his preferred spread-passing attack. It’s going to take time for Fleck to get Minnesota into contention, just as it did after he debuted at Western Michigan with a 1-11 straight-up, 4-8 against the spread record in his first season.
Texas Tech
Not to pick on teams that few expect much from anyway, but Texas Tech has a glaring weakness that can’t be ignored. As usual, the Red Raiders are unlikely to play any defense. Texas Tech ranked last in the nation in 2016 by giving up 7.3 yards per play against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents, and could be even worse this year. The Red Raiders at least mounted decent pressure in 2016 but lost three of its four starting defensive linemen to graduation. Texas Tech has held it together enough to go 15-10 against the spread the last two seasons in large part because of outrageous production from now-departed quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Even though the nature of Texas Tech’s offense virtually guarantees another season of producing big numbers, it would be foolish not to expect at least a small decline without Mahomes.
Air Force
Given the service academy’s reliance on veteran players,
Air Force endures major roster turnover every year. The Falcons usually manage it well, but that shouldn’t be treated as an annual guarantee. Not this year, when the losses to graduation are bigger than ever. Air Force brings back only seven starters, with linebacker Grant Ross the lone one on defense. If that’s not enough, the young team will have to spar with the Mountain West’s toughest schedule. Air Force travels to both Colorado State and Boise State, the favorites in the Mountain division, while drawing two-time defending champions San Diego State out of the West division. Last season’s 10 victories were an anomaly, and the Falcons might be hardpressed to get half as many this year. case.keefer@lasvegassun.com / 702-948-2790 / @casekeefer