Monster hurricanes part of most active period on record

WASHINGTON — It’s not just this year. The monster hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria, Jose and Lee that have raged across the Atlantic are contributing to what appears to be the most active period for major storms on record.

And the busiest part of hurricane season isn’t even over.

An analysis of 167 years of federal storm data by The Associated Press found that no 30-year period in history has seen this many major hurricanes, this many days of those whoppers spinning in the Atlantic or this much overall energy generated by those powerful storms.

Scientists caution it is too soon to draw conclusions from the data. Storms in the distant past might have gone unnoticed, which could make earlier generations appear quieter than they were. Some scientists say past hurricane data is so weak that it’s impossible to connect the recent activity to global warming.

Georgia Tech climate scientist Kim Cobb said it would be “foolish” for policymakers to ignore the data. “We may not have as much data as we would like, but we have enough to aggressively invest in a variety of defenses for coastal communities,” she said in an email. “We face a triple threat of rising seas, stronger winds, and literally off-the-charts rainfall totals.”

The Atlantic hurricane season was more intense than normal in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2016. The 2005 season, which included Katrina, Rita and Wilma, was so active forecasters ran out of names for storms.

Then came this year. Fueled by warmer ocean temperatures and ideal wind conditions, September 2017 had more days with major hurricanes spinning and more overall hurricane energy expelled than any month on record, according to Colorado State University researcher Phil Klotzbach. Harvey spawned record rainfall. Irma had record high winds in the open Atlantic. And Maria hit the U.S. stronger than the earlier two.

Was it just as busy for major storms in the 1930s or 1890s? The numbers say no, but scientists won’t draw conclusions because they fear a large undercount of storms before the 1960s.

“There’s no question that the storms are stronger than they were 30 years ago,” said NOAA climate and hurricane scientist James Kossin. “The questions are if you go back a little further if that’s what you’ll find. We do know for sure that things have increased a hell of a lot since 1970.”