Setting your own morning line can give you a leg up
Iwrote a couple of months ago about a powerful tool that can help you improve your betting strategy and promised to return to the subject. I’m doing that today with a little help from a friend.
First a brief refresher on the concept of making your own morning line: The object is to help you find horses that offer value because their chances of winning are better than the public perceives.
The best way to do that is to use the formula below to ensure that your estimated odds are fair, not just ballpark guesses.
To begin with, you need a target: For simplicity’s sake, let’s use a range of 122 points for short fields of five or six horses up to 130 points for full fields. So in the case of Saturday’s eighth race at Keeneland, which has 13 entries, we’d use 130 points. Simple, right?
Next go through the race and assign odds to each horse that you believe reflect its chances of winning.
When you’re done, calculate the field’s total points using this chart. The total based on your odds should be within a point or two of 130. If it’s not, go back and “massage” your odds until it is.
My friend, a former racetrack linemaker, has been out of the business for a few years, but the concepts he mastered still hold true. Here are a couple of simple ones to get you started, with more coming the next time we return to this subject.
The first is to understand the difference between a racetrack’s morning line and yours. My friend calls the track’s version the “will be” line, because it represents the linemaker’s prediction of how the public will bet. Yours is a “should be” line, or your estimation of each horse’s true odds of winning.
The two should not be viewed as disconnected: You will occasionally miss something that the track’s linemaker considers important.
When that happens, re-examine your reasoning and look for anything that might have escaped your attention. If you remain confident in your assessment and the actual odds during wagering resemble the track’s line, head to the betting window. (Caveat: Some sharp players I know demand a 50 percent premium. In other words, if you think a horse’s fair odds of winning are 2-1, demand at least 3-1 before betting.)
The second piece of advice my friend shares this week is that it pays to “get to know your linemaker.” In other words, if you play a track regularly, develop a profile of the track’s linemaker just as you would the track itself. Is he good at assessing first-time starters? Does he take a stand and try to pinpoint exact prices on heavy favorites? Those are just a few of the questions you’ll want to be able to answer.
Stay tuned for more, but now let’s handicap.
#Rjhorseracing featured races
This week our intrepid handicappers tackled Saturday’s $500,000 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity and the $1 million Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland, both of which have Breeders’ Cup implications.
In the Futurity, our ’capping corps likes 2-1 favorite Free Drop Billy, followed by Enticed (15-1) and Ezmosh (6-1). I’ll throw my lot in with Enticed, who looks to have a lot of upside.
In the Shadwell, the crew sides with the second choice, Heart to Heart (7-2), over favored Miss Temple City (3-1) and a real bomb, Le Ken (30-1). I’ll stick with Miss Temple City.
Contact Mike Brunker mbrunker@ reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter.