On guns, here’s why majority doesn’t rule
not solve the problem; in some cases, it might aggravate it. As The Washington Post’s Philip Bump has noted, if all 50 senators from the 25 smallest states voted for a bill and Vice President Mike Pence cast his lot with them, senators representing just 16 percent of Americans could overrule those representing 84 percent.
This problem will get worse. David Birdsell, a Baruch College political scientist, has calculated that by 2040, 70 percent of Americans will live in 15 states — and be represented by only 30 of the 100 senators.
In the House, mischievously drawn district lines vastly distort the preferences of those who cast ballots. After the 2010 Census, the GOP controlled the redrawing of congressional boundaries in most key states. The result? The Brennan Center for Justice concluded that Republicans derived a net benefit of at least 16 seats from biased boundaries, about twothirds of their current House margin.
The Electoral College, meanwhile, is increasingly out of line with the popular vote. In raw terms, Trump had the largest popular vote deficit of any Electoral College winner. It was the second time in just five elections that the two were at odds. Here again, the failure of our institutions to account for the movement to metropolitan areas is the culprit. In 1960, 63 percent of Americans lived in metros; by 2010, 84 percent did.
Voter-suppression efforts and the disenfranchisement of former felons in many states further skew electoral outcomes, as does the power of money in politics.
Constitutionally, representation in the Senate is difficult to change. But this week, the Supreme Court heard a case on which it could (and should) rule to make gerrymandering much harder. A renewed Voting Rights Act and universal voter registration could restore access to the ballot box to those who have lost it. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is trying to move us toward the popular election of the president. And our campaign finance system badly needs repair.
Our paralysis on guns reflects a looming legitimacy crisis in our system. In the short run, advocates of sane gun laws should keep up the pressure, particularly in election showdowns involving candidates who resist any steps to make our country safer. In the long run, we need reforms to make majority rule a reality.
E.J. Dionne Jr., Norman J. Ornstein and Thomas E. Mann are the authors of
“One Nation After Trump: A Guide for the Perplexed, the Disillusioned, the Desperate, and the Not-yet-deported” (St. Martin’s Press) from which parts of this article are drawn.