Most productive transit stop ever?

Monorail and optimistic assumptions

Officials with the Las Vegas Monorail are plowing forward with a $110 million expansion of the line that would run from the MGM Grand to Mandalay Bay. Supporters of the proposal cite all manner of wondrous benefits that will befall the area upon completion of the project, including better access to the soon-to-be constructed NFL stadium.

“Having many different modes of transportation,” said Tina Quigley, general manager of the Regional Transportation Commission, “is important to moving people from the stadium and between our major convention centers.”

But does Ms. Quigley’s bromide apply regardless of cost or feasibility? The monorail has long been beset by financial problems and emerged from bankruptcy just a few years back after a judge allowed it to stiff creditors for millions. What indication is there that adding an additional mile to the train will result in financial salvation? There isn’t any.

In a Sunday story on the topic, the Review-journal’s Michael Scott Davidson examined some of the projections underlying the expansion plans. Among them are that the extension, in the second year of operation, will increase ridership by 40 percent from last year’s 5 million figure. In addition, “Ticket revenue is expected to nearly double by 2025,” Mr. Davidson reports.

Problem is, that’s almost certain nonsense.

“It would probably be the most productive transit stop

I’ve ever heard of,” James E. Moore II, a transportation expert at USC, told Mr. Davidson. “On its face, it looks very optimistic to me, but that’s frequently how forecasts are used to try to justify a decision to build.”

And there we have the dirty little secret that characterizes virtually every mass transit project in the United States, particularly light rail. The assumptions bandied about to sell such plans to taxpayers and investors are lies. There’s no other way to put it. The numbers are intentionally rigged — sometimes ridiculously so — to drum up support.

The monorail is a private endeavor, and investors can make their own determinations. But, in fact, local taxpayers have been pulled in to this potential debacle. Last month, the Clark County Commission agreed to set aside $4.5 million annually in room tax revenue that monorail officials can seek to tap in case of financial difficulty. The move was critical to ensuring the project can attain favorable financing, a massive red flag if there ever was one.

“In my personal opinion, if something is not going to make it over $4 million, Jesus, they’ve got bigger problems,” said County Commissioner Marilyn Kirkpatrick. “They shouldn’t even have to come to us.”

But they come because, like Willie Sutton famously said, that’s where the money is. The bigger issue is why commissioners put taxpayers at risk while paying minimal attention to the fantastical assumptions underlying this project.

The views expressed above are those of the Las Vegas Review-journal. All other opinions expressed on the Opinion and Commentary pages are those of the individual artist or author indicated.

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