Northwestern’s Wildcats far superior to Kentucky’s
Football’s best-kept secret a big bargain
I made Northwestern a 14-point favorite for its Music City Bowl matchup against Kentucky. The line is inexplicably 7½ points, so let’s pounce on the Big Ten school in what’s my strongest opinion of the postseason.
Northwestern has been college football’s best-kept secret in October and November. Coach Pat Fitzgerald’s squad has won seven in a row straight up and against the spread, with each victory by at least seven points.
Kentucky is mired in a 1-7 ATS slump and has lost four of its past six games outright. The victories were against Vanderbilt and Tennessee, who went a combined 1-15 in Southeastern Conference play.
Running back Bennie Snell garnered first-team ALL-SEC honors for Kentucky, but he will be facing a Northwestern defense that’s ranked ninth in the nation against the run and 19th in scoring defense (19.8 points per game).
Kentucky has produced only one TD pass in the past six games, and has been outscored 86-30 in its past two games. Northwestern has outscored its past two foes by a combined score of 81-7.
Northwestern is the vastly superior team. Look for it to win by at least two TDS in the game, which will be played Friday.
Four more plays (home team in CAPS):
■ South Florida-texas Tech (Over 65½), Birmingham Bowl, Saturday:
I made this number 72. We have two outstanding QBS in the Red Raiders’
Nic Shimonek and the Bulls’ Quinton Flowers. Shimonek has thrown 30 TD passes with eight interceptions. Flowers has thrown for 21 TDS with six interceptions, and he’s also rushed for 972 yards and 10 TDS.
■ Missouri (-2½) over Texas, Texas Bowl, Wednesday: The Tigers, riding a 7-1 ATS run, have won six straight games, and five have been by at least 29 points. Drew Lock has thrown 33 TD passes and only six interceptions during the win streak. The Longhorns have lost four of their past seven and are mired in a 1-3 ATS slump. Texas is ranked No. 108 of 130 FBS teams in pass defense and will be without starting safety Deshon Elliott, who will miss the game to stay healthy for the NFL draft. Starting cornerback Holton Hill also is out with an injury.
■ Washington State (-1) over Michigan State, Holiday Bowl, Thursday: The Cougars are 5-2 against teams that made the postseason, and the Spartans went 3-3. We have a huge advantage at quarterback with Luke Falk, who has a 119-to-39 career Td-to-interception ratio. Washington State is gunning for its first 10-win season in Mike Leach’s tenure.
■ Memphis-iowa State (Over 66½), Liberty Bowl, Dec. 30: The over is 9-3 overall for Memphis, which has seen its games average scores of 81.1 points. The over has hit in five of the Tigers’ past six games. Memphis quarterback Riley Ferguson has thrown for 36 TDS with nine interceptions. The Tigers also have the best kick returner in the country in Tony Pollard, who has four special-teams TDS.
3-2 against the spread 41-34-2
Brian Edwards of Vegasinsider. com and Brianedwardssports.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-journal. Follow @ vegasbedwards on Twitter.
Last week: Season:
■ Indianapolis at Baltimore: The Colts are on an 0-4 skid against the spread and a 6-0 under run. The Ravens are on a 6-1 ATS surge. Edge: Ravens and under.
■ Minnesota at Green Bay: The Vikings are riding an 8-1 spread run, and the Packers are on an extended 17-4 over uptick. Edge: Vikings and over. ■ Detroit at Cincinnati: The Bengals are on a 5-11-2 under run, and the Lions are 4-2-1
ATS on the road this season. Edge: Slight to under and Lions. ■ Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets: The Jets are on an 8-3-1 spread uptick this season and are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games as an underdog. Los Angeles is on a 3-6 ATS slide as a road favorite. Edge: Slight to Jets.
■ Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee: The Rams are 6-2 ATS away from the Los Angeles Coliseum this season. The Rams also are on a 6-1 over run as true visitors this season. The Titans are on a 3-7-1 spread skid and have gone over in four of their last five home games. Edge: Rams and over.
■ Cleveland at Chicago:
The Browns are 3-11 ATS this season and on an extended 7-24 ATS slide. But the Bears are on an 0-7 ATS skid as chalk. The over is 10-3 in Cleveland’s last 13 road games. Edge: Over.
■ Tampa Bay at Carolina:
The Buccaneers are on a 4-11-1 spread slide, and the Panthers are on a 6-1 ATS surge and have covered four straight at Charlotte. Edge: Panthers.
■ Atlanta at New Orleans: The Falcons are on a 21-12 over uptick, and the Saints are on a 38-25 over run. New Orleans is on a 1-4 spread skid. Edge: Over and Falcons.
■ Denver at Washington:
The Broncos are on a 1-8 slide straight up and ATS on the road. The Redskins are on a 25-10 over run. Edge: Slight to Redskins and over.
■ Miami at Kansas City:
The Dolphins are on a 1-6 ATS skid away from home. The Chiefs are on a 7-3 spread run at Arrowhead Stadium. Edge: Chiefs.
■ Buffalo at New England: The Patriots have won 27 of the last 30 meetings but have lost two of the last three at home to the Bills. New England is on a 7-1 spread run. Edge: Slight to Patriots.
■ Jacksonville at San Francisco: The 49ers are 3-0 straight up and 2-0-1 ATS with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. The Jaguars have won and covered three straight games and are 5-2 ATS away from home this season. Edge: Slight to Jaguars.
■ New York Giants at Arizona: The G-men are on a 4-2 ATS uptick on the road. The Cardinals are on a 3-1-1 ATS surge at home. New York is on a 4-1 under run, and Arizona is on a 9-5 under spurt. Edge: Slight to under.
■ Seattle at Dallas: The Seahawks are on a 6-11-1
ATS slide and are 2-3 ATS as underdogs this season. Edge: Slight to Cowboys.
■ Pittsburgh at Houston:
The Texans are 2-5 ATS since Deshaun Watson’s seasonending injury. The Steelers are on an 0-4 spread skid and are 3-4 ATS on the road this season. Pittsburgh is on an 11-5-1 under run. Edge: Slight to under.
■ Oakland at Philadelphia: The Eagles are on a 9-2 spread surge overall and 11-3 ATS run at home. Oakland is on a 2-8-2 spread skid. Edge: Eagles.
Las Vegas handicapper Bruce Marshall is editor of The Gold Sheet (Goldsheet. com).