China, with elbows out, charges ahead in global race for influence
Not long ago, America and its democratic allies hoped to integrate a rising China into the political and economic system they built after the Cold War. Instead, China is creating its own institutions, or reshaping existing institutions and norms, to suit its own needs.
The Pentagon is so concerned that it named China, along with Russia, America’s top security threats for seeking to “shape a world consistent with their authoritarian model — gaining veto authority over other nations’ economic, diplomatic and security decisions.”
It makes perfect sense that the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, wants to see his country play a greater international role. China, with its model of central economic and political direction, enjoys a growing economy, substantial military strength and stable leadership. But that should not give it license to unilaterally reorder the Indo-pacific region to its advantage. A focused and forward-looking American president would counter such moves. President Donald Trump, blinded by Xi’s flattery, just cedes more power to Beijing.
Xi has the advantage of knowing where he wants to lead his country. Trump vacillates between declaring economic war on China and wanting to be Xi’s friend.
Trump lavished praise on Xi while in Beijing in November, and declared that he did not blame China for the out-of-balance trade relationship. Weeks later, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, he seemed to forecast a trade war, saying, “The United States will no longer turn a blind eye to unfair economic practices, including massive intellectual property theft, industrial subsidies and pervasive state-led economic planning.” Last month, he put tariffs on solar panels, which will hurt Chinese businesses but is unlikely to make American companies more competitive.
It was alarming to watch Trump quickly cede diplomatic ground to China. He
China’s biggest play could be a plan to spend more than $1 trillion on roads, power plants and other projects across the globe to expand markets and political influence. Despite concerns that this “One Belt, One Road” initiative could burden participating countries with debt, many countries are already involved or intend to become involved. By contrast, Trump is cutting America’s modest foreign aid budget.
withdrew from the 12-nation Trans-pacific Partnership and the Paris climate agreement, questioned the North American Free Trade Agreement and rejected the Iran nuclear deal, alienating allies.
Meanwhile, China is exercising influence in others ways, like creating an Asian infrastructure bank and building artificial islands in the South China Sea for military bases. It has eclipsed the United States as the leading trade partner for Chile, Argentina, Brazil and Peru.
China’s biggest play could be a plan to spend more than $1 trillion on roads, power plants and other projects across the globe to expand markets and political influence. Despite concerns that this “One Belt, One Road” initiative could burden participating countries with debt, many countries are already involved or intend to become involved. By contrast, Trump is cutting America’s modest foreign aid budget.
Beijing even took aim at democracy, saying via a state newspaper that while the American system is supposed to be politically superior, the recent federal government shutdown showed it was rived by chaos and “chronic flaws.”
It may have a point. In the past year, public faith in America’s major institutions collapsed, according to a survey by the Edelman communications firm. Whereas in China, faith in the government jumped 8 points, to 84 percent, in the United States it fell 14 points, to 33 percent, the steepest decline ever among Americans and the biggest decline of all 28 countries polled. That’s a warning for democracies to resolve their internal conflicts, though, not an argument for authoritarian rule.
To an extent, Trump is pushing back. American ships have stepped up patrols in the South China Sea to assert freedom of navigation. The White House persuaded China to support tighter sanctions on North Korea.
So far, though, it’s not clear that Trump has a strategy to manage these policy strands effectively. Most Asian countries want the United States to lead both in cooperating with and counterbalancing Beijing, and no one wants to have to choose between the two behemoths. The Chinese-american relationship has become more competitive and fraught, and will remain so. It will be up to both powers to prevent competition from sliding into confrontation.