The real next war in Syria
largely on Syria’s air defense system, is particularly exposed to Israel’s air force.
“Russia’s appearance of omnipotence in the Syrian arena has been shattered,” military writer Anshel Pfeffer noted in Haaretz on Monday. “Appearances of power count for a lot in this region.” Russia’s “forces there are insufficient to take on any of the other nations who have operated, and may operate again, in Syria. ... The United States, Britain and France, as well as Israel and Turkey, can all deploy larger and more capable forces to the region much faster than Russia can.”
Suleimani could opt to strike back at Israel through proxies, either in the Middle East or against Israeli targets globally. But he now has to think twice about that, both because his forces in Syria are exposed and because Iran is exposed financially. Iran’s currency is collapsing back home. The Iranian rial has lost onethird of its value just this year, which a wider confrontation with Israel would only exacerbate.
It would seem, in other words, that Suleimani is at odds with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Rouhani of Iran. Putin and Rouhani share an interest in Syria quieting down now, and not becoming a financial drain or a military quagmire — by Suleimani turning it into an arena for a direct war with Israel.
But economic restraints have never stopped Suleimani and his Quds Force before and may not now. Their ambitions are big — to create a base to pressure Israel directly, to dominate the Arab states around them and to maintain the fervor of the Islamic Revolution. Everyone is basically awaiting Suleimani’s next move. Does he back down, lose a little face, and wait until he is stronger? Does Israel let him?
These are momentous days for both countries. One thing I know for sure: The status quo is not sustainable.