Prognosis: Active season for hurricanes
MIAMI — U.S. government forecasters said Thursday that they expect an active Atlantic hurricane season — an announcement that came as odds increased that the first tropical weather system of the year was forming in the Gulf of Mexico.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast calls for 10 to 16 named storms, with five to nine hurricanes. One to four hurricanes could be “major” with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
If that forecast holds, it will make for a near-normal or above-normal season. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
“There are no strong climate signals saying it’s going to be extremely active, like last year, or extremely weak,” said Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’S Climate Prediction Center.
In the short term, the National Hurricane Center said Thursday that a mass of low pressure in the western Caribbean was becoming better defined and likely would become a subtropical or tropical depression by late Saturday.
The system currently off the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula was expected to move north. Heavy rains were likely across western Cuba, much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In the United States, the downpours could dampen Memorial Day, the unofficial start of the tourist season.
Florida’s governor has directed authorities to prepare flood-response resources to help in the event of torrential rains.
Forecasters said they still expect this year to see the kind of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that have been producing stronger Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.
If an El Niño develops later this summer, it could suppress storm development during the season’s peak months from August through October. El Niño is the natural warming of parts of the Pacific Ocean that changes weather worldwide and tends to reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
The six-month Atlantic hurricane season officially starts June 1.