Determining reality, fiction in baseball’s first two months
Rotation makes Houston favorite; Dodgers far from finished
NEW YORK — Memorial Day Weekend is the first traditional milepost in baseball, and so far the season is a Tale of Two Leagues.
The American League is as top-heavy as expected, and even though the Indians haven’t played well yet, the only real suspense is likely to be whether the Yankees or Red Sox win the East, and which other team claims the second wild-card spot.
The National League, on the other hand, is delightful chaos, with none of the favorites — the Nationals, Cubs and Dodgers — in first place.
So what’s it all mean? Let’s break some of it down, by deciphering what’s real and what’s not as it applies to the long season.
Red Sox better than Yankees: Not real
While I think it will be a compelling race, a couple of factors should allow the Yankees to prevail. Most significantly, the Yankees have plenty of payroll room under the luxury-tax threshold and a deep farm system to make deals at the trade deadline, as they did last year, while the Sox are maxed out with a $230 million payroll. And I’m convinced the Boston bullpen, other than Craig Kimbrel, will spring leaks over the long summer.
Astros rotation makes them team to beat: Real
The Yankees were impressive in winning three of four in Houston, but the Astros won the opener of a series at Yankee Stadium on Monday. Pitching usually wins in October, and through Monday, Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton and Gerrit Cole have the top three ERAS in the league, at 1.11, 2.04 and 2.05, respectively. With that in mind, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman’s challenge is to find a better trade come July than he could have made for Cole last winter.
Brewers have best record in NL: Not real
They might have the best back-end bullpen in baseball, with the emergence of unhittable lefty Josh Hader (62 Ks, 31⅓ IP through Monday) to go with Jeremy Jeffress and Corey Knebel, and it has been a difference-maker so far. However, the lineup doesn’t wow you, even with newcomers Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, and the starting pitching is just OK. I did pick them as the first wild card in the preseason, but I still think the Cubs will put the pieces together to win a third straight NL Central title.
Braves, Phillies as contenders: Real
They’re both ahead of their rebuild timetables, thriving with young talent, and while I still believe the Nationals will win the East, I’m convinced the Braves and Phillies will be factors all year, with at least one of them earning a wild card. The Phillies have the better young pitching at the moment, the Braves the more dynamic offense, led by rookie stars Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna. The bad news for the Mets is both of them have money to spend and more talent coming from highly ranked farm systems.
Dodgers an also-ran: Not real
As it turned out, the Diamondbacks weren’t good enough to bury them when they had the chance, and now it’s only a matter of time before the Dodgers climb back to the top of the NL West. They survived Justin Turner’s absence, Clayton Kershaw is on his way back from biceps tendinitis, and L.A. still has the most talent of any team in the division.
Mookie Betts AL MVP: Real
I thought he should have won it in 2016 over Mike Trout, and Trout is having a spectacular season himself. But Betts has raised his game to another level, leading the league in most offensive categories, making the Red Sox offense formidable again after last year’s mysterious power outage. It could be a fascinating MVP race, as I expect Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa each to make a push, but it looks like Betts’ year.
Jacob degrom NL ERA leader: Real
I’m invested here, having picked him in the preseason to win the NL Cy Young Award, but I really do believe degrom has raised his game to the highest level. Home runs were his downfall last year, as he gave up 28 of them, but he’s surrendered only two in 10 starts, pitching to a leaguebest 1.52 ERA. But can he outpitch the indefatigable Max Scherzer? The Nats ace actually has slightly better overall numbers while going for his third straight NL Cy Young. Should be quite a race.
Martinez better move than Stanton: Real
GM Dave Dombrowski took heat in Boston all winter for not getting in on the Stanton deal, but his patience in waiting out Scott Boras and signing Martinez for five years, $110 million (with opt-outs) has proven crucial for the Red Sox. Martinez is a better pure hitter than Stanton. Meanwhile, Yanks are committed to 10 years with Stanton at $24 million per until age 38.