Price on favorite justifies other options
Twill be a palpable buzz at Las Vegas race books Saturday, when Justify tries to become the second horse in the past 40 years to win the Triple Crown.
But Wynn Las Vegas race and sports book director Johnny Avello said he can’t justify a wager on the favorite at 4-5 morning-line odds to win the 150th running of the Belmont Stakes.
“If Justify went off at 2-1, I’d play Justify. But that’s not going to happen,” Avello said. “He’s going to be 4-5, possibly a little bit less. I, personally, will try to beat him.
“He may win the Triple Crown, but I’m actually going in a different direction. I think he’s just kind of tailed off a little bit from his earlier numbers, and I believe that this is just a tad too far for the breeding of the horse.”
The Belmont is a 1½-mile test that has seen only three favorites win in the past 22 years.
Will Justify win the Triple Crown? Wynn Las Vegas opened the odds at 60-1, but yes is now at even money. No is minus 120.
Depending on the odds, Avello said he is planning on playing either Hofburg or Tenfold to win and place.
“If Hofburg is 4-1, I probably wouldn’t be interested on the win side, but if he was 6-1 or 7-1, I might be,” he said. “Tenfold was 12-1 on the morning line. If he’s anywhere in the 12-1 to 15-1 range, I’d certainly look at that seriously. It’s all going to set up on what the odds are.”
For exacta, trifecta and superfecta players, Avello suggests using Hofburg, Tenfold, Justify and Vino Rosso, with Noble Indy or Gronkowski in a third or fourth spot only.
“If you can get a horse on top that’s a good price, that’s the key,” he said. “You’d have to use Justify in the second spot. The problem with using him in the first spot is there’s no payoff.”
After winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness out of the No. 7 post, Justify will come out of the No. 1 post in the Belmont.
Avello breaks down the rest of the field:
Post position, horse, jockey, morning-line odds: 2. Free Drop Billy, Albarado, 30-1
“Had an awful race in the Derby. He just doesn’t look fast enough to win this.”
3. Bravazo, Saez, 8-1
“Ifherunstheraceheranatthe Preakness (second to Justify), that would give him a shot to win this. But I’m not expecting that to happen.”
4. Hofburg, Ortiz Jr., 9-2
“He’s a horse you certainly have to consider. He’s out of (the sire) Tapit,