Trump heightens China tariff threat
Economists doubt any deal to help American workers in sight
WASHINGTON — With President Donald Trump intensifying his rift with U.S. trading partners, economists are growing more doubtful that any deal that might benefit American workers and companies is in sight.
Instead, many analysts say they expect the Trump administration to impose more tariffs on China and potentially other key U.S. trading partners. With those nations almost certain to retaliate, the result could be higher prices for Americans, diminished export sales and a weaker U.S. economy by next year.
In an interview with CNBC that aired Friday morning, Trump renewed his threat to ultimately slap tariffs on a total of $500 billion of imports from China — roughly equal to all the goods Beijing ships annually to the United States. The president has already imposed tariffs on $34 billion in Chinese goods, and Beijing has retaliated with tariffs on an equal amount of American exports. The White House has also itemized $200 billion of
TARIFF Analysts say they’re becoming more convinced that Trump’s multifront trade fights aren’t merely a shortterm negotiating ploy.
additional Chinese imports that it said may be subject to tariffs.
In addition, Trump has told the Commerce Department to investigate whether imported autos and auto parts threaten America’s national security — the same justification the president has invoked for other tariffs he has imposed or threatened, including on imported steel and aluminum. If the answer is yes, the administration says it could slap 20 percent to 25 percent tariffs on $335 billion of auto imports. Higher car prices for American consumers would inevitably follow.
On Friday morning, Trump accused China of allowing its tightly controlled currency to drift lower against the dollar, a move that could help Chinese exporters by making their goods more affordable overseas.
In a tweet, the president said: “China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower, while the U.S. is raising rates while the dollar gets stronger and stronger with each passing day — taking away our big competitive edge.”
Analysts say they’re becoming more convinced that Trump’s multifront trade fights aren’t merely a short-term negotiating ploy. Rather, he may be prepared to wait as long
as he feels it necessary to force other countries to adopt trade rules more favorable to the United States.
“People are underestimating what we’re headed for,” said Rod Hunter, a lawyer who served as a White House economic adviser under President George W. Bush. “He’s been saying since the ’80s that trade deals are bad and we should have more tariffs, and that’s what we’re getting.”
Moody’s Analytics estimates that if the tariffs were imposed on autos and most Chinese imports and other countries retaliate as expected, annual U.S. growth would slow by
0.5 percentage point by mid-2019. It expects that 700,000 jobs would be lost.
Rufus Yerxa, president of the
National Foreign Trade Council and formerly deputy director general of the World Trade Organization, said Trump appears to think that America’s trading partners will yield to pressure without securing any concessions in return.
“That isn’t how trade negotiations work,” Yerxa said.
China will likely retaliate if additional tariffs are imposed, economists note, rather than simply knuckle under. President Xi Jingping “cannot lose face with his own people by giving in to the United States,” said David Dollar, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former official at the World Bank and U.S. Treasury Department.