FLEURY’S NUMBERS CAN INCREASE WITH INJURY-FREE YEAR

offensive, 1.8 defensive)

In total, Vegas lost 13.7 point shares, with the majority (9.8) coming on the offensive end, and only 3.9 on the defensive side of the ice.

Here are the players the Golden Knights added this offseason.

Paul Stastny — 4.7 point shares (2.8 offensive, 1.9 defensive)

Nick Holden — 3.2 point shares (0.4 offensive, 2.7 defensive)

Because Vegas added fewer players than it lost, I’ll add Tomas Hyka’s point shares as he is a likely replacement for one of the open forward spots left vacant. Last season, Hyka played 10 games in the NHL and spent the rest of the season in the American Hockey League, so these are his point share numbers when extrapolated over an 82-game season.

Tomas Hyka — 2.4 point shares (0.8 offensive, 1.6 defensive)

With that, the Golden Knights have a net loss of 3.4 point shares from last season.

They took a major dip offensively, losing 5.8 offensive point shares, but actually improved defensively by adding 2.3 point shares.

According to these analytics, the Golden Knights new roster is 3.4 points worse than last season’s, which finished atop the Pacific Division with 109 points. Vegas was eight points clear of the second-place Anaheim Ducks, so losing a few points shouldn’t hurt, theoretically.

It’s important to note that these are only last year’s performances and they don’t necessarily predict next season’s production. Karlsson is the best example, as his point shares went from 2.0 with the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2016-17 to an 11.8 last season.

The Golden Knights could have players like Karlsson or Erik Haula regress on the heels of career seasons, and they could have young players like Alex Tuch and Shea Theodore improve drastically after their first full season in the NHL.

Tomas Tatar could find his scoring touch that he seemed to leave in Detroit when Vegas acquired him at the deadline, or Nate Schmidt could fall back down to earth after putting up an impressive 4.8 defensive point shares a year ago.

Goaltender health could also change the outlook for this season. Marc-andre Fleury finished second on the Golden Knights with 9.9 point shares last season despite playing in only 46 games due to injury.

Had Fleury not been out he likely adds another 4.0 point shares. If Fleury can stay healthy for a full season, the Golden Knights could get even better goaltending than they did a year ago.

Last year’s Golden Knights showed it’s impossible to predict hockey, but it’s still interesting to look at the numbers, which say Vegas got slightly worse this offseason.