LOOK FOR COWBOYS TO DOMINATE THIS YEAR IN NFC EAST
Cleveland Browns over 6 wins at plus-110 (South Point)
First, a confession: It’s typically not wise to bet over on a total that has moved up significantly, and this is a total that has moved up significantly. Cleveland’s win total opened at 5, before bettors immediately loaded up on the over to force sports books to increase the asking price. But it wasn’t recreational gamblers causing the movement; it was professionals. They see a team poised for a breakout, despite a horrendous 1-31 combined record over the past two seasons. Cleveland struggled through 2016 and 2017 with the youngest roster in the NFL by a wide margin. But it should reap the benefits this year with a stockpile of highly drafted young players — led by 2017 top overall pick defensive end Myles Garrett — nearing their primes together. The Browns also go from not rostering a single competent quarterback to having two. Veteran Tyrod Taylor is more than capable of managing the offense until 2018 top overall pick Baker Mayfield takes over. Statistically, Mayfield is one of the best quarterback prospects this decade.
San Francisco 49ers under 8.5 wins at minus110 (South Point)
Five games are not a sufficient sample size. That’s what bettors need to remember before joining the mob that has the 49ers bordering as a favorite to make the playoffs in sports books.
San Francisco won its final five games last year after acquiring quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in a trade with New England. Scouting reports will now be much improved on Garoppolo, who threw for an unsustainable 8.8 yards per attempt during the run. Even if Garoppolo turns into an MVP candidate, the 49ers still have major problems in the two most important defensive areas — pass rush and secondary.
Dallas Cowboys over 8.5 wins at even money (Westgate)
Coming off of a breakout 13-win season behind rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys were one of the most popular bets to win the Super Bowl going into last year. That all feels like ancient history now, as bettors have done everything they can to avoid backing Dallas in 2018. That has boosted Dallas’ prices to must-bet territory. The Cowboys, after all, won nine games last season despite everything going against them. In addition to Elliott serving a six-game suspension, equally important left tackle Tyron Smith went down with an injury. With Smith healthy, the Cowboys have the NFL’S best offensive line, and it’s ready to pulverize its way to an unexpected NFC East title.
New York Giants under 7 wins at plus-130 (William Hill)
The Giants have undergone a whirlwind of shifting perceptions in sports books over the past eight months. When the team sat at 2-10 last December and announced the benching of quarterback Eli Manning, the move was viewed as the end of an era and the start of a rebuilding period. But then Manning got back into the lineup, played decently and led a massive upset win over Washington in the final week of the season. Coupled with the drafting of potential generational running back talent Saquon Barkley and the hiring of Minnesota offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, fans started talking themselves into a Giants’ renaissance. The hype has continued into the preseason, where New York’s win total has shot up as much as one victory at some sports books. Don’t buy into it. Even if Barkley is unstoppable, it’s extremely rare for a running back to be a savior in the modern NFL. Manning is now 37 years old, and has regressed each of the past four years. And Shurmur went 9-23 in his only previous stint as an NFL head coach, with the Browns.
Jacksonville Jaguars under 9 wins at plus-115 (South Point)
Jacksonville rode the NFL’S best defense and a place in the NFL’S worst division to arguably the greatest season in franchise history last year, which culminated with a close loss to New England in the AFC Championship Game. Neither the defensive strength nor the divisional weakness are likely to repeat this season. Defensive performance is far more volatile year-to-year than offensive performance, and Jacksonville was particularly fortunate last year. The Jaguars suffered minimal injuries, recovered nearly 60 percent of fumbles and completed an inordinate number of sacks. Meanwhile, AFC South rivals Indianapolis and Houston should rebound with their quarterbacks returning from injury — Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson, respectively — while Tennessee could take another step forward after reaching the second round of the playoffs.