Partisan redistricting means Democrats need a surge to win majorities in Congress
“(T)he very fact that we have elections every two years is the product of the fact that the framers wanted frequent change in Congress and they wanted Congress to reflect the mood of the people as it changed over relatively short periods of time.”
It’ll take a bigger blue wave than in past decades to flip the balance of power in elected bodies at the state and federal levels, even as Democratic turnout has been galvanized this midterm election by unpopular federal policies.
Gerrymandering, drawing partisan legislative and congressional lines to benefit the party in power, has forced Democrats in many states into the position of needing a higher number of votes before they can pick up a new seat, said Michael Li, senior counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice at the NYU School of Law.
“It’s breaking the rules of the game, breaking the rules of the system so that your party remains in power,” Li said. “We’ve seen this increase to frightening levels.”
While a “blue wave” of higher-than-normal midterm turnout has been seen in many parts of the country so far, Democrats have failed to actually flip seats in some close races. If Democrats have historic turnout and make gains, Li said, they still have to do so again in 2020 to avoid losing pickups they may gain in 2018. Republicans rode a red wave in 2010 and locked in gains during 2011 redistricting.
“Which is not the way that American democracy is supposed to work,” Li said. “You’re not supposed to have to count on wave elections in order to change the Michael Li, senior counsel, Brennan Center for Justice, NYU School of Law.
balance of power in Congress, and the very fact that we have elections every two years is the product of the fact that the framers wanted frequent change in Congress and they wanted Congress to reflect the mood of the people as it changed over relatively short periods of time.”
JMC Analytics, a polling firm that typically works with Republicans, said that in the primaries held in 35 states so far, turnout has increased 81 percent among Democrats and 20 percent among Republicans since the 2014 midterm.
“Again, evidence of a surge in Democratic enthusiasm was evident ... in each and every contest,” the analysis said.
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Nevada’s Legislature falls somewhere
in the middle of the rest of the nation in terms of legislative gerrymandering, according to an analysis by researcher Simon Jackman.
Nevada’s 2018 election will determine who is in power in the Legislature as lawmakers consider what steps to take to prepare for the 2020 Census and the redistricting that will follow. Lawmakers in 2021 will have the responsibility of drawing the next set of maps.
Gov. Brian Sandoval stepped in to block maps drawn by the Democratic-controlled 2010 Legislature and the court intervened as well. If Nevada continues to trend blue in active voter registrations statewide, and Democrats maintain majorities and gain control of seats