Undefeated, still underdogs: Don’t undervalue Kentucky
Wildcats have depth against Texas A&M
Kentucky was perhaps the surprise of September in college football.
Despite facing a two-loss team, Kentucky (5-0) is a 6-point underdog at Texas A&M (3-2).
Sure, if the Wildcats need to rely on QB Terry Wilson to win this game at a hostile Kyle Field, the chances are this underdog story will diminish.
But even that is a strange assumption.
Give props to Kentucky RB Benny Snell, who leads the Southeastern Conference in carries and rushing yards. But the reason the Wildcats have been able to run the ball such a high percentage of the time is the defense, which ranks No. 3 in the S&P+ ratings.
Kentucky edge rusher Josh Allen leads the SEC with 10½ tackles for loss and six sacks. Texas A&M, meanwhile, is No. 121 in sack rate. The Wildcats should pressure Aggies QB Kellen Mond early and often.
Texas A&M has scored 26, 23 and 24 points against Power Five competition so far. Expect Kentucky to stay within a field goal and possibly to win outright.
Four more plays (home team in
CAPS):
Iowa State (+9½) over OKLAHOMA STATE:
Iowa State lost by 10 at Iowa, by 10 to Oklahoma and by three at Texas Christian. All three of those teams are higher in my power rankings than the Cowboys. Cyclones RB David Montgomery (1,146 rushing yards in 2017) has been upgraded to probable. Coach Matt Campbell is 5-2 ATS as a road underdog since the beginning of last year. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has already lost receivers Jalen Mccleskey, Patrick Mckaufman and Tracin Wallace, and now Dillon Stoner is questionable. Iowa State’s rush defense is respectable, and Cowboys QB Taylor Cornelius completed only 57.1 percent of his passes against Boise State, Texas Tech and Kansas.
Most understand that Wolfpack QB Ryan Finley is an NFL prospect capable of tearing up mediocre defenses. But did anyone foresee N.C. State ranking in the top 30 in the defensive S&P+ ratings despite losing its entire defensive line? Boston College has given up 34, 30 and 35 points to Wake Forest, Purdue and Temple in the past three weeks. N.C. State could score in the 40s in this game, and the Wolfpack are good enough to slow down Eagles RB A.J. Dillon on some drives. Buy N.C. State early before they get hype.
Let’s recap the biggest moments of the Panthers’ season. First, Pitt lost to Penn State 51-6 as a 7-point underdog. Then Pitt lost to an otherwise-winless North Carolina at home. And last week, Pitt lost 45-14 to UCF as a 13½-point underdog. Pitt is 1-4 ATS and Syracuse is 4-1 ATS. This is not a perfect spot for the Orange, playing a second consecutive road game after an emotional loss at Clemson. But
NORTH CAROLINA STATE (-5½) over Boston College: Syracuse (-3) over PITTSBURGH:
Syracuse is a more complete team than most imagined. I have Syracuse power rated at No. 40 and Pitt at No. 74. Take the Orange.
The Badgers have not been able to pass protect well for Alex Hornibrook, who remains limited as a passer. Wisconsin also has just two receivers with double-digit catches and more than 100 yards. Badgers RB Jonathan Taylor has been efficient but not explosive, and Wisconsin’s defense isn’t as good as it was last year. Meanwhile, Nebraska had postgame win expectancies of 94 percent vs. Colorado and 55 percent vs. Troy and lost both. The market is too high on Wisconsin and too low on Nebraska, as this should be more like a two-touchdown game.
2-3 ATS
9-16
Christopher Smith of Al.com, NOLA. com and Mybookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.
Nebraska (+18) over WISCONSIN: Last week: Season:
Las Vegas handicapper Bruce Marshall is editor of The Gold Sheet (Goldsheet.com). He provides the Review-journal with NFL tech notes and trends.
Baltimore (-3, 46) at Cleveland: The Browns are on an 0-5 slide straight up and against the spread vs. the Ravens. Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last five games immediately following the Steelers. Edge: slight to Ravens.
Jacksonville at Kansas City (-3, 48½): The Chiefs have won and covered their last eight regular-season games. The over is 4-1 in their last five regularseason games. The Jaguars are on a 9-4 cover streak on the road and on a 7-2 spread run as underdogs. Edge: slight to Chiefs and over.
Tennessee (-5, 39) at Buffalo: The Bills are 1-3 in their last four games as home underdogs. The Titans are on a 3-7 ATS slide on the road in the regular season. Edge: slight to Titans.
New York Giants at Carolina (-6, 43½): The under is 9-2 in the Giants’ last 11 games. The Panthers are 7-8 ATS in their last 15 games as home chalk. Carolina has gone over in seven of its last 10 regularseason games. Edge: slight to under.
Denver (Pick, 42½ )at New York Jets: The Broncos are on a 2-13-1 spread skid. Denver also is on an 8-3 under run. The Jets are on a 6-2-1 cover streak at home. New York is on a 4-2 under surge, including a 23-0 loss at Denver last December. Edge: Under and Jets.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh
(-3, 57½): The Steelers have gone over in five of their last six games. Pittsburgh is on a 3-6 spread skid as home chalk, but the Falcons are on a 4-7 ATS slide on the road. The Falcons have gone over in three straight games after going under in their previous eight. Edge: Over.
Green Bay at Detroit
(Pick, 51): The Packers are on a 27-12 over streak. Green Bay went 0-2 SU and ATS vs. the Lions last season without QB Aaron Rodgers. The over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. Edge: Over.
Miami at Cincinnati
(-6, 48½): Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill is 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in his last 12 starts. Miami also is on a 10-5 over run. The Bengals are on a 4-1 cover streak at home and have gone over in five straight games.
Edge: Over.
Oakland at Los Angeles Chargers (-5, 52½): The
Raiders had covered seven of their last eight meetings vs. the Chargers in San Diego before getting blown out 30-10 by
L.A. last season at the Stubhub Center. The underdog is 15-3
ATS in the last 18 meetings.
The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Edge: Under and Raiders.
Arizona at San Francisco (-4, 40): The Cardinals are on a 4-0 under surge this season and have gone under in 14 of their last 20 games overall. Arizona is on a 2-7 spread skid on the road but has won and covered the last two meetings at San Francisco. Edge: Under.
Minnesota at Philadelphia (-3, 46½): The Vikings are on an 0-3 spread skid this season, but are riding an 18-9 cover streak as regular-season underdogs.
The Eagles are 12-5-1 ATS at home in the regular season since Doug Pederson took over in 2016. Edge: Vikings.
Los Angeles Rams (-7, 50½) at Seattle: The Rams 3-0-1 ATS this season and riding a 13-7 over streak. The Seahawks are on a 3-7 regularseason spread skid at home. Edge: Rams and slight to over.
Dallas at Houston (-3½, 45½): The Texans have lost nine of their last 10 games, covering only two of them. Dallas is 0-2 ATS on the road this season and is on an 11-2 under streak.
Under.
(Monday): The road team has covered in all four Saints games this season. New Orleans is on an 8-4 over run at home while the Redskins are riding a 10-4 over uptick away from home. Edge: Over.
Las Vegas handicapper Bruce Marshall is editor of The Gold Sheet (Goldsheet.com).