Out like a lion: Penn State in no shape to keep up at Iowa
Aggies’ bizarrely thin edge a gift to bettors
Penn State’s resume is crumbling.
The Nittany Lions lost to a Michigan State team that isn’t very good, went to overtime against Appalachian State (which just got blown out by Georgia Southern) and played a tough game against Ohio State that isn’t looking as impressive.
Penn State hasn’t won by more than five points since beating Illinois more than five weeks ago, and the Illini led that game 24-21 in the third quarter.
Meanwhile, Iowa is the most boring one-loss Power 5 team you’ll ever meet. But it is also 6-1 against the spread and two weeks ago blew out the Indiana team that last week gave Penn State a scare before losing 33-28.
If not for a fluky ending against Wisconsin, Iowa would be undefeated and perhaps ranked in the Top 10. Penn State has a one-dimensional offense, and the Hawkeyes are good enough to punish that on defense. I’ll take the 6 points with Iowa.
Four more plays (home team in CAPS): HOUSTON (-7½) over South Florida:
The Bulls are one of the worst ranked, undefeated teams that you’ll ever come across. Charlie Strong’s team claims one-possession wins against Illinois, East Carolina, Tulsa and Connecticut. Yikes. Houston has scored at least 41 points in all seven of its games this year. Whether or not Ed Oliver plays (knee), South Florida is going to have a hard time keeping up on the scoreboard. The team has been prone to slow starts and penalties, both things that can cause issues on the road.
Texas
This line could be a gift from the gambling gods. It’s one of those games that make you pause and
A&M (+1½) over MISSISSIPPI STATE:
ask, is this too good to be true? But sometimes oddsmakers make mistakes. Mississippi State has lost three of four, scoring a combined 16 points in those three losses. Texas A&M’S defense is excellent against the run on early downs and even better on third-and-long. The Bulldogs should not score in the 20s without a non-offensive score or some short fields. Maybe Mississippi State will put in backup QB Keytaon Thompson. The Aggies are 6-1 ATS since Jimbo Fisher arrived, while Joe Moorhead’s offense is square peg, round hole with his personnel.
I power-rated Iowa State as a top 30 team even after its 1-3 start. Now, with three consecutive covers, a healthy David Montgomery in the backfield and new QB Brock Purdy lighting up secondaries, I like the Cyclones even more. Purdy completed 36 of 48 passes against Oklahoma State and West Virginia for 572 yards and seven touchdowns. He also ran 30 times for 123 yards. I’ll take a balanced offense and a defense that doesn’t allow big plays in
IOWA STATE (-5) over Texas Tech:
front of a raucous home crowd.
I wanted to pick the Gators in this spot and got a Florida plus 10 ticket on Sunday. But that line has moved too much. We’ll go with another Southeastern Conference East matchup. Kentucky may be considered the sharp play, and math systems also favor the Wildcats. But Missouri’s run defense is No. 4 in the country in the S&P+ ratings, and unless Kentucky goes to Gunnar Hoak at QB, it’s going to struggle mightily to score. Drew Lock has not played well against great SEC defenses, but Kentucky will allow him to throw underneath zone coverage, which he will beat. If Missouri gets Emanuel Hall or Nate Brown back at receiver, it will just be a bonus.
4-1 ATS
19-20-1
Christopher Smith of Al.com, NOLA. com and Mybookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.
MISSOURI (-7) over Kentucky: Last week: Season:
The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall provides the Review-journal with NFL tech notes and trends from Goldsheet. com:
Philadelphia (-3, 43) vs. Jacksonville (at London): The Jaguars are slumping, going
1-4 straight up and against the spread in their last five games. Jacksonville also is on a 1-5 ATS skid in its last six regular season games away from home. The Eagles are on a 6-0 over run away from home. Edge: Over and Eagles.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-8½, 49): The Browns have covered three of their last four games at Pittsburgh and are riding a four-game cover streak against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games. The Steelers are on a 6-2 over streak. Edge: Browns and over.
Denver at Kansas City
(-9½ ,53 The Chiefs are on an 11-0 ATS streak in the regular season and have covered their last six meetings vs. Denver. The Broncos broke their road drought at Arizona, but they’re still on a 2-9 spread slide on the road. The over is on a 5-1-1 run in the series. Edge: Chiefs and over.
New York Jets at Chicago (-8, 44): The Jets are on an 11-72 ATS uptick as underdogs. But the Bears are on a 10-4-2 cover streak at Soldier Field. Edge: Slight to Bears.
Washington at New York Giants (Pick, 44): The Giants are 0-3 ATS at home this season and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. The total has gone under in the last three meetings and four of five. Edge: Redskins.
Seattle at Detroit (-3,
49): The Lions have covered five straight since their debacle of an opener vs. the Jets. Detroit is on a 6-1 over run. The Seahawks are on a 9-3 under streak on the road. Edge: Slight to Lions.
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (-3½ ,54 The Buccaneers are on a 6-1 over streak, and Cincinnati is on a 6-2 over uptick. Tampa Bay is on a 2-5-1 ATS slide on the road. Edge: Over.
Baltimore (-2½, 44) at Carolina: The Panthers are on a 3-5 ATS slide in the regular season. Carolina is on a 9-5 over uptick. Edge: Ravens and slight to over.
Indianapolis (-3, 50½ )at Oakland: The Raiders are on a 4-13-3 spread slide and have gone under in 11 of their last 13 games. Edge: Colts and under.
San Francisco (-1½, 41) at Arizona: The Cardinals were on a 3-0-1 ATS surge before their 45-10 loss to the Broncos. The Niners have covered their last two road games and are on a 6-3 cover streak away from home. The road team has covered the last five in the series. San Francisco is on an 8-1 over streak. Edge: Over and 49ers.
Green Bay at Los Angeles Rams (-9, 57): The Packers are on a 12-3 over streak, and the Rams are on an 8-4 over uptick in their last 12 regular-season games. Edge: Over.
New Orleans at Minnesota (Pick, 52): The Viking are on a 3-0-1 ATS surge and riding an extended 13-3-2 cover streak.
But the Saints are on a 4-0 cover run and are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs. Edge: Slight to Saints.
Monday
New England (-14, 44½ )at Buffalo: The home team is 6-1 ATS in the Patriots’ first seven games. New England won and covered both games against the Bills last season and has won six straight meetings at Orchard Park, covering five of them. The Bills are on a 7-2 under streak. Edge: Patriots and slight to under.