Switching to Purdy at QB helps Iowa State hit stride
Cyclones should be tough go for Baylor
Iowa State trailed by a touchdown in the fourth quarter until an Oklahoma field goal sealed the Sept. 15 game, part of the Cyclones’ 1-3 start.
“They’re going to give people fits. There’s no doubt about it,” Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley said after the victory.
That was before Brock Purdytookoverasquarterback against Oklahoma State in Week 6. The Cyclones are 4-0 straight up and against the spread since, including a 30-14 win over West Virginia. Iowa State is the 14th-best team in the country with Purdy, according to Bill Connelly, the proprietor of the S&P+ ratings.
Running back David Montgomery has topped 100 rushing yards in four of his last five games, and Iowa State’s defense is No. 12 against the pass in the S&P+ ratings and No. 19 against the run.
In other words, this is the best threeloss team in the country against a Baylor side that has lost 66-33 to Oklahoma, 58-14 to West Virginia and 40-27 to Duke. Take Iowa State laying 15 points.
Four more plays (home team in CAPS):
The Commodores are 13-8 ATS as double-digit underdogs under Derek Mason and probably should have beaten Notre Dame and Kentucky as big road underdogs. Missouri can’t rush the passer, and Vanderbilt quarterback Kyle Shurmur can pick apart a defense if he has time. Shurmur has thrown 40 touchdowns against 15 interceptions in the last two seasons. Vanderbilt had a bye last week, and Missouri is coming off games against Kentucky and Florida.
Vanderbilt (+17) over MISSOURI: Mississippi State (+24) over ALABAMA:
Don’t be fooled by Louisiana State’s 19-3 win over these Bulldogs, or by the hype for last week’s Lsu-alabama game. Mississippi State matches up better and might be the toughest regular-season test for the nation’s No. 1 team. The Bulldogs field the best defense in the Southeastern Conference, allowing just three touchdowns in their opponents’ last 55 possessions. That’s despite an ineffective offense and games in that stretch against Florida, Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M. Alabama has bumps and bruises at receiver, running back and quarterback.
Miami’s defense, especially its front seven, matches up terrifically. The Hurricanes are No. 1 in the country in stuff rate and No. 5 in standard downs success rate. Shaquille Quarterman, Gerald Willis IIII and Jonathan Garvin have combined for 40½ tackles for loss.
Miami (+3) over GEORGIA TECH:
Georgia Tech has won four of its past five games, but the teams it beat are ranked No. 61, No. 98, No. 104 and No. 128 in S&P+ ratings.
Maryland getting points is a gift. Indiana has lost five of its past six games, giving up 35, 49, 42, 33 and 38 points in those losses because of a dreadful pass defense. Its win in that stretch was over Rutgers in a one-possession game. At 5-4 and with games left against Ohio State and Penn State, Maryland has to win this game to become bowl eligible. Maryland’s defense is solid, and Indiana won’t keep pace.
3-0-2 ATS
24-22-4
Christopher Smith of Al.com, NOLA. com and Mybookie is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-journal. Follow @cfblocksmith on Twitter.
Maryland (+2) over INDIANA: Last week: Season:
The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall provides the Review-journal with NFL tech notes and trends from Goldsheet.com:
Buffalo at New York Jets (-7, 36½): The Bills are on a
7-3 under run. The Jets have covered the last two meetings at home, where they’re 9-3-1 against the spread in their last 13 games. New York is on a 3-1 cover run in the series overall. Under and Jets.
at Cleveland: The Falcons are on a 3-8 spread slide as regularseason visitors. Atlanta is on a 6-2 over streak this season. The Browns are 1-3 ATS in their last four games. Over. at Cincinnati: The Saints have covered their last five away games and are riding a 16-5 ATS run on the road. The Bengals are on an 0-3 spread skid. Edge: Saints.
Washington at Tampa
Bay (-3, 51): The Redskins are on a 7-4 cover run and riding an 8-3 under streak after an extended over run. The Buccaneers are on an 8-1 over uptick and 1-5 spread skid.
Redskins and over. at Tennessee: The Patriots have covered five of their last six games. They’ve covered their last two on the road after dropping their previous three and four of their last five away from home. New England has won and covered its last six games before its bye week. The Titans are on a 9-5 under run. Edge: Under and Patriots.
Miami at Green Bay (-9½, 47½): The Packers are 1-2 ATS as Lambeau Field chalk this season. Green Bay is riding a 23-8 over streak. Edge: Over.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-3, 46½): The Jaguars are on a four-game losing streak and an 0-4 spread skid, and the Colts have won and covered their last two games. But Jacksonville has covered its last six meetings. Edge: Slight to Colts.
Detroit at Chicago (-6½, 44): The Bears are 3-0 ATS as home chalk this season. The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Bears and under.
The Cardinals are on a 4-1-1 cover streak this season but are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs. The Chiefs are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 regularseason games. Edge: Chiefs.
Los Angeles Chargers (-10, 50) at Raiders: The Raiders are 2-6 ATS this season and 4-15-3 ATS since early 2017. The Chargers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games at Oakland. The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Chargers and under.
The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Rams are on a 1-4-1 spread skid this season and have covered only five of their last 14 games overall (5-8-1 ATS). Seahawks coach Pete Carroll is on a 157-1 cover run as an underdog. Edge: Seahawks.
Dallas at Philadelphia (-7, 43½): The Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS on the road this season. Dallas is riding a 13-4 under run. The Eagles are on an 0-3 spread skid at home. Edge: Under.
Monday
New York Giants at
San Francisco (-3½, 45): The Giants are on an 11-4 under streak. Edge: Under.
Las Vegas handicapper Bruce Marshall is editor of The Gold Sheet (Goldsheet. com).